Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogen...
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Universidad EAFIT
2016-12-01
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Series: | Ecos de Economía |
Online Access: | http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181/pdf |
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doaj-0aa9ed777acd4d51b6bd8ce27a2f23802020-11-25T01:50:27ZengUniversidad EAFITEcos de Economía 1657-42061657-42062016-12-01204310.17230/ecos.2016.43.2Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in ColombiaLeonardo Quero-Virla0Universidad del ZuliaThis research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative. http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181/pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Leonardo Quero-Virla |
spellingShingle |
Leonardo Quero-Virla Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia Ecos de Economía |
author_facet |
Leonardo Quero-Virla |
author_sort |
Leonardo Quero-Virla |
title |
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia |
title_short |
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia |
title_full |
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia |
title_fullStr |
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia |
title_sort |
macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations in colombia |
publisher |
Universidad EAFIT |
series |
Ecos de Economía |
issn |
1657-4206 1657-4206 |
publishDate |
2016-12-01 |
description |
This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.
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url |
http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181/pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT leonardoquerovirla macroeconomiceffectsofoilpricefluctuationsincolombia |
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1725001797308776448 |