Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses
Abstract Background In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in t...
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doaj-179873e508ed48d9b2dadfd530b93d962020-11-24T22:00:01ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752018-04-0117111510.1186/s12936-018-2318-1Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapsesMichael T. White0Stephan Karl1Cristian Koepfli2Rhea J. Longley3Natalie E. Hofmann4Rahel Wampfler5Ingrid Felger6Tom Smith7Wang Nguitragool8Jetsumon Sattabongkot9Leanne Robinson10Azra Ghani11Ivo Mueller12MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonDivision of Population Health & Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteDivision of Population Health & Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteDivision of Population Health & Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteSwiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteSwiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteSwiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteSwiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteDepartment of Molecular Tropical Medicine and Genetics, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol UniversityMahidol Vivax Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol UniversityDepartment of Parasites and Insect Vectors, Institut PasteurMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonDivision of Population Health & Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteAbstract Background In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. Results For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. Conclusion The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-018-2318-1Plasmodium vivaxPlasmodium falciparumRelapseGenotypeStatistical model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Michael T. White Stephan Karl Cristian Koepfli Rhea J. Longley Natalie E. Hofmann Rahel Wampfler Ingrid Felger Tom Smith Wang Nguitragool Jetsumon Sattabongkot Leanne Robinson Azra Ghani Ivo Mueller |
spellingShingle |
Michael T. White Stephan Karl Cristian Koepfli Rhea J. Longley Natalie E. Hofmann Rahel Wampfler Ingrid Felger Tom Smith Wang Nguitragool Jetsumon Sattabongkot Leanne Robinson Azra Ghani Ivo Mueller Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses Malaria Journal Plasmodium vivax Plasmodium falciparum Relapse Genotype Statistical model |
author_facet |
Michael T. White Stephan Karl Cristian Koepfli Rhea J. Longley Natalie E. Hofmann Rahel Wampfler Ingrid Felger Tom Smith Wang Nguitragool Jetsumon Sattabongkot Leanne Robinson Azra Ghani Ivo Mueller |
author_sort |
Michael T. White |
title |
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
title_short |
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
title_full |
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
title_fullStr |
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
title_sort |
plasmodium vivax and plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
Malaria Journal |
issn |
1475-2875 |
publishDate |
2018-04-01 |
description |
Abstract Background In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. Results For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. Conclusion The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics. |
topic |
Plasmodium vivax Plasmodium falciparum Relapse Genotype Statistical model |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-018-2318-1 |
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