A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China
Haze is the greatest challenge facing China’s sustainable development, and it seriously affects China’s economy, society, ecology and human health. Based on the uncertainty and suddenness of haze, this paper proposes a novel linear time-varying grey model (GM)(1,N) based on inter...
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doaj-1c291be6172a415ea42bca38affda4842020-11-24T20:53:43ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502019-07-011114383210.3390/su11143832su11143832A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, ChinaPingping Xiong0Jia Shi1Lingling Pei2Song Ding3College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaSchool of Business Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaSchool of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaHaze is the greatest challenge facing China’s sustainable development, and it seriously affects China’s economy, society, ecology and human health. Based on the uncertainty and suddenness of haze, this paper proposes a novel linear time-varying grey model (GM)(1,N) based on interval grey number sequences. Because the original GM(1,N) model based on interval grey number sequences has constant parameters, it neglects the dynamic change characteristics of parameters over time. Therefore, this novel linear time-varying GM(1,N) model, based on interval grey number sequences, is established on the basis of the original GM(1,N) model by introducing a linear time polynomial. To verify the validity and practicability of this model, this paper selects the data of PM<sub>10</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in Beijing, China, from 2008 to 2018, to establish a linear time-varying GM(1,3) model based on interval grey number sequences, and the prediction results are compared with the original GM(1,3) model. The result indicates that the prediction effect of the novel model is better than that of the original model. Finally, this model is applied to forecast PM<sub>10</sub> concentration for 2019 to 2021 in Beijing, and the forecast is made to provide a reference for the government to carry out haze control.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/14/3832hazelinear time-varying GM(1,N) modelinterval grey numberBeijingforecasting |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Pingping Xiong Jia Shi Lingling Pei Song Ding |
spellingShingle |
Pingping Xiong Jia Shi Lingling Pei Song Ding A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China Sustainability haze linear time-varying GM(1,N) model interval grey number Beijing forecasting |
author_facet |
Pingping Xiong Jia Shi Lingling Pei Song Ding |
author_sort |
Pingping Xiong |
title |
A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China |
title_short |
A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China |
title_full |
A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China |
title_fullStr |
A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Novel Linear Time-Varying GM(1,N) Model for Forecasting Haze: A Case Study of Beijing, China |
title_sort |
novel linear time-varying gm(1,n) model for forecasting haze: a case study of beijing, china |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2019-07-01 |
description |
Haze is the greatest challenge facing China’s sustainable development, and it seriously affects China’s economy, society, ecology and human health. Based on the uncertainty and suddenness of haze, this paper proposes a novel linear time-varying grey model (GM)(1,N) based on interval grey number sequences. Because the original GM(1,N) model based on interval grey number sequences has constant parameters, it neglects the dynamic change characteristics of parameters over time. Therefore, this novel linear time-varying GM(1,N) model, based on interval grey number sequences, is established on the basis of the original GM(1,N) model by introducing a linear time polynomial. To verify the validity and practicability of this model, this paper selects the data of PM<sub>10</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in Beijing, China, from 2008 to 2018, to establish a linear time-varying GM(1,3) model based on interval grey number sequences, and the prediction results are compared with the original GM(1,3) model. The result indicates that the prediction effect of the novel model is better than that of the original model. Finally, this model is applied to forecast PM<sub>10</sub> concentration for 2019 to 2021 in Beijing, and the forecast is made to provide a reference for the government to carry out haze control. |
topic |
haze linear time-varying GM(1,N) model interval grey number Beijing forecasting |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/14/3832 |
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