Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran

Background: Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of huma...

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Main Authors: Mohammad Bazyar, Somayeh Noori Hekmat, Sima Rafiei, Amin Mirzaei, Masoomeh Otaghi, Ali Khorshidi, Sara Mohammadnejad, Samane Tahmasebi, Ali Amarloei, Mohsen Jalilian
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2021-03-01
Series:Proceedings of Singapore Healthcare
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/2010105820943239
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spelling doaj-3fd4dc05b06c49f8844ce1c6809608d52021-03-30T22:33:19ZengSAGE PublishingProceedings of Singapore Healthcare2010-10582059-23292021-03-013010.1177/2010105820943239Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, IranMohammad Bazyar0Somayeh Noori Hekmat1Sima Rafiei2Amin Mirzaei3Masoomeh Otaghi4Ali Khorshidi5Sara Mohammadnejad6Samane Tahmasebi7Ali Amarloei8Mohsen Jalilian9Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranManagement and Leadership in Medical Education Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranDepartment of HealthCare Management, School of Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranDepartment of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, IranBackground: Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of human resources and to make necessary changes in medical training processes to fill the gap. Methods: An eight-stage process was applied to project the supply and demand of health workers in Ilam province in 2025 for the following fields: public health, environmental health, general medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing and midwifery. To estimate the demand for human resources, a mainly population-based model (manpower-to-population ratio) was applied. A modified version of the Australian dynamic stock and flow model was used to predict the supply of new recruits in 2025. The potential surplus or shortfall in the health workforce was calculated by comparing the supply and demand in 2025. Results: The demand and supply projections for the chosen fields were estimated respectively as: general medicine 457, 709; pharmacy 131, 86; dentistry 86, 251; nursing 949, 1657; midwifery 24, 247; public health 182, 211; and environmental health 92, 225. Conclusions: The current trend of medical graduates will meet the need for human resources in 2025, and there is no need to increase medical student admission. The Education Deputy of Ilam Medical University should take into account the health needs of its catchment area in medical educational processes and training new health-care staff.https://doi.org/10.1177/2010105820943239
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Mohammad Bazyar
Somayeh Noori Hekmat
Sima Rafiei
Amin Mirzaei
Masoomeh Otaghi
Ali Khorshidi
Sara Mohammadnejad
Samane Tahmasebi
Ali Amarloei
Mohsen Jalilian
spellingShingle Mohammad Bazyar
Somayeh Noori Hekmat
Sima Rafiei
Amin Mirzaei
Masoomeh Otaghi
Ali Khorshidi
Sara Mohammadnejad
Samane Tahmasebi
Ali Amarloei
Mohsen Jalilian
Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
Proceedings of Singapore Healthcare
author_facet Mohammad Bazyar
Somayeh Noori Hekmat
Sima Rafiei
Amin Mirzaei
Masoomeh Otaghi
Ali Khorshidi
Sara Mohammadnejad
Samane Tahmasebi
Ali Amarloei
Mohsen Jalilian
author_sort Mohammad Bazyar
title Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
title_short Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
title_full Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
title_fullStr Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
title_full_unstemmed Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran
title_sort supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in ilam, iran
publisher SAGE Publishing
series Proceedings of Singapore Healthcare
issn 2010-1058
2059-2329
publishDate 2021-03-01
description Background: Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of human resources and to make necessary changes in medical training processes to fill the gap. Methods: An eight-stage process was applied to project the supply and demand of health workers in Ilam province in 2025 for the following fields: public health, environmental health, general medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing and midwifery. To estimate the demand for human resources, a mainly population-based model (manpower-to-population ratio) was applied. A modified version of the Australian dynamic stock and flow model was used to predict the supply of new recruits in 2025. The potential surplus or shortfall in the health workforce was calculated by comparing the supply and demand in 2025. Results: The demand and supply projections for the chosen fields were estimated respectively as: general medicine 457, 709; pharmacy 131, 86; dentistry 86, 251; nursing 949, 1657; midwifery 24, 247; public health 182, 211; and environmental health 92, 225. Conclusions: The current trend of medical graduates will meet the need for human resources in 2025, and there is no need to increase medical student admission. The Education Deputy of Ilam Medical University should take into account the health needs of its catchment area in medical educational processes and training new health-care staff.
url https://doi.org/10.1177/2010105820943239
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