Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.
<h4>Background</h4>Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<h4>Metho...
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doaj-42566389446b4b54bfb904b29c3177bf2021-04-21T18:34:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Medicine1549-12771549-16762018-07-01157e100262910.1371/journal.pmed.1002629Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.Yuming GuoAntonio GasparriniShanshan LiFrancesco SeraAna Maria Vicedo-CabreraMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoelhoPaulo Hilario Nascimento SaldivaEric LavigneBenjawan TawatsupaKornwipa PunnasiriAla OvercencoPatricia Matus CorreaNicolas Valdes OrtegaHaidong KanSamuel OsorioJouni J K JaakkolaNiilo R I RytiPatrick G GoodmanAriana ZekaPaola MichelozziMatteo ScortichiniMasahiro HashizumeYasushi HondaXerxes SeposoHo KimAurelio TobiasCarmen ÍñiguezBertil ForsbergDaniel Oudin ÅströmYue Leon GuoBing-Yu ChenAntonella ZanobettiJoel SchwartzTran Ngoc DangDung Do VanMichelle L BellBen ArmstrongKristie L EbiShilu Tong<h4>Background</h4>Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.<h4>Conclusions</h4>This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Yuming Guo Antonio Gasparrini Shanshan Li Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Benjawan Tawatsupa Kornwipa Punnasiri Ala Overcenco Patricia Matus Correa Nicolas Valdes Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo R I Ryti Patrick G Goodman Ariana Zeka Paola Michelozzi Matteo Scortichini Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Xerxes Seposo Ho Kim Aurelio Tobias Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Daniel Oudin Åström Yue Leon Guo Bing-Yu Chen Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Tran Ngoc Dang Dung Do Van Michelle L Bell Ben Armstrong Kristie L Ebi Shilu Tong |
spellingShingle |
Yuming Guo Antonio Gasparrini Shanshan Li Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Benjawan Tawatsupa Kornwipa Punnasiri Ala Overcenco Patricia Matus Correa Nicolas Valdes Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo R I Ryti Patrick G Goodman Ariana Zeka Paola Michelozzi Matteo Scortichini Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Xerxes Seposo Ho Kim Aurelio Tobias Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Daniel Oudin Åström Yue Leon Guo Bing-Yu Chen Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Tran Ngoc Dang Dung Do Van Michelle L Bell Ben Armstrong Kristie L Ebi Shilu Tong Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. PLoS Medicine |
author_facet |
Yuming Guo Antonio Gasparrini Shanshan Li Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Benjawan Tawatsupa Kornwipa Punnasiri Ala Overcenco Patricia Matus Correa Nicolas Valdes Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo R I Ryti Patrick G Goodman Ariana Zeka Paola Michelozzi Matteo Scortichini Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Xerxes Seposo Ho Kim Aurelio Tobias Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Daniel Oudin Åström Yue Leon Guo Bing-Yu Chen Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Tran Ngoc Dang Dung Do Van Michelle L Bell Ben Armstrong Kristie L Ebi Shilu Tong |
author_sort |
Yuming Guo |
title |
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. |
title_short |
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. |
title_full |
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. |
title_sort |
quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: a multicountry time series modelling study. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS Medicine |
issn |
1549-1277 1549-1676 |
publishDate |
2018-07-01 |
description |
<h4>Background</h4>Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.<h4>Conclusions</h4>This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629 |
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