A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event. Eac...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
2010-12-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/10/101027/jdm101027.pdf |