Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years
An assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and...
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2018-07-01
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doaj-5da2197bd2f24bb794f639326c0726c82020-11-25T00:09:33ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412018-07-0110788310.3390/w10070883w10070883Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 YearsLüliu Liu0Tong Jiang1Hongmei Xu2Yong Wang3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaChongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, ChinaAn assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years, using a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a combination of five general circulation models with four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results indicated annual mean temperature could rise higher in the Yellow River Basin than the Xijiang River Basin during 2021–2050. Higher risks of small floods and some big floods, but lower risks of rare big floods are projected for both basins. Water scarcity will continually threaten the Yellow River Basin, especially during the dry season and around 2025. In comparison with the effects of climate change, population variation was expected to have a greater impact on water scarcity. A longer and drier dry season is projected for the Pearl River Basin, which could aggravate water stress and saltwater intrusion into the Pearl River delta. Although the present findings have implications for water resource management planning, caution should be observed because of the neglect of reservoir/dam operations and inherent projection uncertainty.http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/7/883water stressfloodsYellow RiverXijiang River |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Lüliu Liu Tong Jiang Hongmei Xu Yong Wang |
spellingShingle |
Lüliu Liu Tong Jiang Hongmei Xu Yong Wang Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years Water water stress floods Yellow River Xijiang River |
author_facet |
Lüliu Liu Tong Jiang Hongmei Xu Yong Wang |
author_sort |
Lüliu Liu |
title |
Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years |
title_short |
Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years |
title_full |
Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years |
title_fullStr |
Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years |
title_sort |
potential threats from variations of hydrological parameters to the yellow river and pearl river basins in china over the next 30 years |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Water |
issn |
2073-4441 |
publishDate |
2018-07-01 |
description |
An assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years, using a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a combination of five general circulation models with four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results indicated annual mean temperature could rise higher in the Yellow River Basin than the Xijiang River Basin during 2021–2050. Higher risks of small floods and some big floods, but lower risks of rare big floods are projected for both basins. Water scarcity will continually threaten the Yellow River Basin, especially during the dry season and around 2025. In comparison with the effects of climate change, population variation was expected to have a greater impact on water scarcity. A longer and drier dry season is projected for the Pearl River Basin, which could aggravate water stress and saltwater intrusion into the Pearl River delta. Although the present findings have implications for water resource management planning, caution should be observed because of the neglect of reservoir/dam operations and inherent projection uncertainty. |
topic |
water stress floods Yellow River Xijiang River |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/7/883 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT luliuliu potentialthreatsfromvariationsofhydrologicalparameterstotheyellowriverandpearlriverbasinsinchinaoverthenext30years AT tongjiang potentialthreatsfromvariationsofhydrologicalparameterstotheyellowriverandpearlriverbasinsinchinaoverthenext30years AT hongmeixu potentialthreatsfromvariationsofhydrologicalparameterstotheyellowriverandpearlriverbasinsinchinaoverthenext30years AT yongwang potentialthreatsfromvariationsofhydrologicalparameterstotheyellowriverandpearlriverbasinsinchinaoverthenext30years |
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