Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa

Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a d...

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Main Authors: Eric L. Bullock, Sean P. Healey, Zhiqiang Yang, Phoebe Oduor, Noel Gorelick, Steve Omondi, Edward Ouko, Warren B. Cohen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-02-01
Series:Land
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/2/150
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spelling doaj-62a20d25ad5443a6b34ec6d042c2b5092021-02-04T00:01:55ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2021-02-011015015010.3390/land10020150Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East AfricaEric L. Bullock0Sean P. Healey1Zhiqiang Yang2Phoebe Oduor3Noel Gorelick4Steve Omondi5Edward Ouko6Warren B. Cohen7US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USAUS Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USAUS Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USARegional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, KenyaGoogle Switzerland, 8002 Zurich, SwitzerlandRegional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, KenyaRegional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, KenyaUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USAPopulation growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (±1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/2/150land cover changeTimeSyncEast AfricaLandsatstatistical inferencedevelopment
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Eric L. Bullock
Sean P. Healey
Zhiqiang Yang
Phoebe Oduor
Noel Gorelick
Steve Omondi
Edward Ouko
Warren B. Cohen
spellingShingle Eric L. Bullock
Sean P. Healey
Zhiqiang Yang
Phoebe Oduor
Noel Gorelick
Steve Omondi
Edward Ouko
Warren B. Cohen
Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
Land
land cover change
TimeSync
East Africa
Landsat
statistical inference
development
author_facet Eric L. Bullock
Sean P. Healey
Zhiqiang Yang
Phoebe Oduor
Noel Gorelick
Steve Omondi
Edward Ouko
Warren B. Cohen
author_sort Eric L. Bullock
title Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
title_short Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
title_full Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
title_fullStr Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
title_full_unstemmed Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
title_sort three decades of land cover change in east africa
publisher MDPI AG
series Land
issn 2073-445X
publishDate 2021-02-01
description Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (±1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.
topic land cover change
TimeSync
East Africa
Landsat
statistical inference
development
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/2/150
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