Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probab...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Paul Lehner, Avra Michelson, Leonard Adelman, Anna Goodman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2012-11-01
Series:Judgment and Decision Making
Subjects:
Online Access:http://journal.sjdm.org/10/101116/jdm101116.pdf