Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections
This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios. This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2 °C anthropogenic global warming scenario for the wes...
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2020-06-01
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doaj-960ef3e739674fd08a78bb29e1a7ca6c2021-04-02T14:26:18ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322020-06-01927586Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projectionsEun Jeong Cha0Thomas R. Knutson1Tsz-Cheung Lee2Ming Ying3Toshiyuki Nakaegawa4National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of KoreaGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAHong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding author.Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, ChinaMeteorological Research Institute/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, JapanThis paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios. This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2 °C anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific (WNP) following the approach of a WMO Task Team, together with other reported findings for this region. For projections of TC genesis/frequency, most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency, but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future. However, some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency. Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21st century. All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate. Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks. A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity. The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise, which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300199Tropical cyclonesClimate changeWestern North PacificTyphoon CommitteeProjections |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Eun Jeong Cha Thomas R. Knutson Tsz-Cheung Lee Ming Ying Toshiyuki Nakaegawa |
spellingShingle |
Eun Jeong Cha Thomas R. Knutson Tsz-Cheung Lee Ming Ying Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Tropical cyclones Climate change Western North Pacific Typhoon Committee Projections |
author_facet |
Eun Jeong Cha Thomas R. Knutson Tsz-Cheung Lee Ming Ying Toshiyuki Nakaegawa |
author_sort |
Eun Jeong Cha |
title |
Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections |
title_short |
Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections |
title_full |
Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections |
title_fullStr |
Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections |
title_sort |
third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the typhoon committee region – part ii: future projections |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
series |
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
issn |
2225-6032 |
publishDate |
2020-06-01 |
description |
This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios. This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2 °C anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific (WNP) following the approach of a WMO Task Team, together with other reported findings for this region. For projections of TC genesis/frequency, most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency, but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future. However, some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency. Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21st century. All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate. Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks. A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity. The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise, which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal. |
topic |
Tropical cyclones Climate change Western North Pacific Typhoon Committee Projections |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300199 |
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