Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment
<p>Detachments of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers in recent years have raised great attention due to their threats to lives and properties downstream. While current studies have mainly focused on post-event analysis, a few opportunities have presented themselves to assess the potent...
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English |
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author |
X. Wang X. Wang L. Liu Y. Hu T. Wu L. Zhao L. Zhao Q. Liu R. Zhang R. Zhang B. Zhang G. Liu G. Liu |
spellingShingle |
X. Wang X. Wang L. Liu Y. Hu T. Wu L. Zhao L. Zhao Q. Liu R. Zhang R. Zhang B. Zhang G. Liu G. Liu Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
X. Wang X. Wang L. Liu Y. Hu T. Wu L. Zhao L. Zhao Q. Liu R. Zhang R. Zhang B. Zhang G. Liu G. Liu |
author_sort |
X. Wang |
title |
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
title_short |
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
title_full |
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
title_fullStr |
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
title_sort |
multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the east kunlun mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1561-8633 1684-9981 |
publishDate |
2021-09-01 |
description |
<p>Detachments of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers in
recent years have raised great attention due to their threats to lives and
properties downstream. While current studies have mainly focused on
post-event analysis, a few opportunities have presented themselves to assess
the potential hazards of a glacier prone to detachment. Here we present a
comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and runout hazard of a low-angle
(<span class="inline-formula">∼20</span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>) valley glacier, close to the Qinghai–Tibet
railway and highway, in the East Kunlun Mountains on the Qinghai–Tibet
Plateau. The changes in morphology, terminus position, and surface elevation
of the glacier between 1975 and 2021 were characterized with a stereo-image
pair from the historical KH-9 spy satellite, six digital elevation models
(DEMs), and 11 high-resolution images from Planet Labs. The surface flow
velocities of the glacier tongue between 2009 and 2020 were also tracked
based on cross-correlation of Planet images. Our observations show that the
glacier snout has been progressively advancing in the past 4 decades,
with a stepwise increase in advance velocity from <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">4.55</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.46</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="84pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="bafd0064a040ef8132ee6e9a5bec3f5a"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00001.svg" width="84pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> between 1975 and 2009 to <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">30.88</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.36</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="90pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="d09c21c6aa300ba8ccad937e6bdb8bb3"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00002.svg" width="90pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> between 2015 and 2020. DEM differencing confirms the
glacial advance, with surface thinning in the source region and thickening
in the tongue. The net volume loss over the glacier tongue was about
<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">11.21</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.66</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="90pt" height="13pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="4add3998cbdfd3cb34b274ef8c098773"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00003.svg" width="90pt" height="13pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00003.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula">m<sup>3</sup></span> during 1975–2018. Image
cross-correlation reveals that the surface flow velocity of the glacier
tongue has been increasing in recent years, with the mean velocity below
4800 <span class="inline-formula">m</span> more than tripling from <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M8" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">6.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.8</mn><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="72pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="fa7c0876d4f422a3e28776f95e099fcb"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00004.svg" width="72pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00004.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> during
2009–2010 to <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M9" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">22.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3.2</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="78pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="c1144a6b820f32500000d6dede558697"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00005.svg" width="78pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00005.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> during 2019–2020. With
a combined analysis of the geomorphic, climatic, and hydrologic conditions
of the glacier, we suggest that the flow of the glacier tongue is mainly
controlled by the glacier geometry, while the presence of an ice-dammed lake
and a supraglacial pond implies a hydrological influence as well. Taking the
whole glacier and glacier tongue as two endmember avalanche sources, we
assessed the potential runout distances of these two scenarios using the
angle of reach and the Voellmy–Salm avalanche model. The assessments show
that the avalanche of the whole glacier would easily travel a distance that would threaten the safety of the railway. In contrast, the detachment of the
glacier tongue would threaten the railway only with a small angle of reach
or when employing a low-friction parameter in the Voellmy–Salm modeling.</p> |
url |
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2791/2021/nhess-21-2791-2021.pdf |
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doaj-a2af1c6b9e48476bb177be84d4ef8c122021-09-13T11:59:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812021-09-01212791281010.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessmentX. Wang0X. Wang1L. Liu2Y. Hu3T. Wu4L. Zhao5L. Zhao6Q. Liu7R. Zhang8R. Zhang9B. Zhang10G. Liu11G. Liu12Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaState-Province Joint Engineering Laboratory of Spatial Information Technology of High-speed Rail Safety, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaEarth System Science Programme, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaEarth System Science Programme, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaCryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, ChinaCryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaState-Province Joint Engineering Laboratory of Spatial Information Technology of High-speed Rail Safety, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, ChinaState-Province Joint Engineering Laboratory of Spatial Information Technology of High-speed Rail Safety, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China<p>Detachments of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers in recent years have raised great attention due to their threats to lives and properties downstream. While current studies have mainly focused on post-event analysis, a few opportunities have presented themselves to assess the potential hazards of a glacier prone to detachment. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and runout hazard of a low-angle (<span class="inline-formula">∼20</span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>) valley glacier, close to the Qinghai–Tibet railway and highway, in the East Kunlun Mountains on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The changes in morphology, terminus position, and surface elevation of the glacier between 1975 and 2021 were characterized with a stereo-image pair from the historical KH-9 spy satellite, six digital elevation models (DEMs), and 11 high-resolution images from Planet Labs. The surface flow velocities of the glacier tongue between 2009 and 2020 were also tracked based on cross-correlation of Planet images. Our observations show that the glacier snout has been progressively advancing in the past 4 decades, with a stepwise increase in advance velocity from <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">4.55</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.46</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="84pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="bafd0064a040ef8132ee6e9a5bec3f5a"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00001.svg" width="84pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> between 1975 and 2009 to <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">30.88</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.36</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="90pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="d09c21c6aa300ba8ccad937e6bdb8bb3"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00002.svg" width="90pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> between 2015 and 2020. DEM differencing confirms the glacial advance, with surface thinning in the source region and thickening in the tongue. The net volume loss over the glacier tongue was about <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">11.21</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.66</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="90pt" height="13pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="4add3998cbdfd3cb34b274ef8c098773"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00003.svg" width="90pt" height="13pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00003.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula">m<sup>3</sup></span> during 1975–2018. Image cross-correlation reveals that the surface flow velocity of the glacier tongue has been increasing in recent years, with the mean velocity below 4800 <span class="inline-formula">m</span> more than tripling from <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M8" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">6.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.8</mn><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="72pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="fa7c0876d4f422a3e28776f95e099fcb"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00004.svg" width="72pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00004.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> during 2009–2010 to <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M9" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">22.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3.2</mn><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="78pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="c1144a6b820f32500000d6dede558697"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00005.svg" width="78pt" height="14pt" src="nhess-21-2791-2021-ie00005.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> during 2019–2020. With a combined analysis of the geomorphic, climatic, and hydrologic conditions of the glacier, we suggest that the flow of the glacier tongue is mainly controlled by the glacier geometry, while the presence of an ice-dammed lake and a supraglacial pond implies a hydrological influence as well. Taking the whole glacier and glacier tongue as two endmember avalanche sources, we assessed the potential runout distances of these two scenarios using the angle of reach and the Voellmy–Salm avalanche model. The assessments show that the avalanche of the whole glacier would easily travel a distance that would threaten the safety of the railway. In contrast, the detachment of the glacier tongue would threaten the railway only with a small angle of reach or when employing a low-friction parameter in the Voellmy–Salm modeling.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2791/2021/nhess-21-2791-2021.pdf |