Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers

• Main Authors: Alexandru Pîrjan, Simona-Vasilica Oprea, George Căruțașu, Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu, Adela Bâra, Cristina Coculescu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2017-10-01
• Series: Energies
• Subjects: energy consumption; forecasting solutions; large non-household consumers; artificial neural networks; non-linear autoregressive (NAR) model; non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model; Levenberg-Marquardt (LM); Bayesian Regularization (BR); Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG)
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1727

This paper focuses on an important issue regarding the forecasting of the hourly energy consumption in the case of large electricity non-household consumers that account for a significant percentage of the whole electricity consumption, the accurate forecasting being a key-factor in achieving energy efficiency. In order to devise the forecasting solutions, we have developed a series of dynamic neural networks for solving nonlinear time series problems, based on the non-linear autoregressive (NAR) and non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) models. In both cases, we have used large datasets comprising the hourly energy consumption recorded by the smart metering device from a commercial center type of consumer (a large hypermarket), while in the NARX case we have used supplementary temperature and time stamps datasets. Of particular interest was to research and obtain an optimal mix between the training algorithm (Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization, Scaled Conjugate Gradient), the hidden number of neurons and the delay parameter. Using performance metrics and forecasting scenarios, we have obtained results that highlight an increased accuracy of the developed forecasting solutions. The developed hourly consumption forecasting solutions can bring significant benefits to both the consumers and electricity suppliers.