Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS)
Abstract Background The Framingham hypertension risk score is a well-known and simple model for predicting hypertension in adults. In the current study, we aimed to assess the predictive ability of this model in a Middle Eastern population. Methods We studied 5423 participants, aged 20–69 years, wit...
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doaj-e52ecd9a4b6d4da1ab4ca2540d76e8e82021-04-25T11:04:18ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582021-04-012111810.1186/s12889-021-10760-6Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS)Fatemeh Koohi0Ewout W. Steyerberg1Leila Cheraghi2Alireza Abdshah3Fereidoun Azizi4Davood Khalili5Student Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical CentreDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesSchool of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical SciencesEndocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesAbstract Background The Framingham hypertension risk score is a well-known and simple model for predicting hypertension in adults. In the current study, we aimed to assess the predictive ability of this model in a Middle Eastern population. Methods We studied 5423 participants, aged 20–69 years, without hypertension, who participated in two consecutive examination cycles of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). We assessed discrimination based on Harrell’s concordance statistic (c-index) and calibration (graphical comparison of predicted vs. observed). We evaluated the original, recalibrated (for intercept and slope), and revised (for beta coefficients) models. Results Over the 3-year follow-up period, 319 participants developed hypertension. The Framingham hypertension risk score performed well in discriminating between individuals who developed hypertension and those who did not (c-index = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.79–0.83). Initially, there was a systematic underestimation of the original risk score (events predicted), which was readily corrected by a simple model revision. Conclusions The revised Framingham hypertension risk score can be used as a screening tool in public health and clinical practice to facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions in high-risk Middle Eastern people.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10760-6HypertensionBlood pressureRisk predictionRisk scorePrimary prevention |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Fatemeh Koohi Ewout W. Steyerberg Leila Cheraghi Alireza Abdshah Fereidoun Azizi Davood Khalili |
spellingShingle |
Fatemeh Koohi Ewout W. Steyerberg Leila Cheraghi Alireza Abdshah Fereidoun Azizi Davood Khalili Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) BMC Public Health Hypertension Blood pressure Risk prediction Risk score Primary prevention |
author_facet |
Fatemeh Koohi Ewout W. Steyerberg Leila Cheraghi Alireza Abdshah Fereidoun Azizi Davood Khalili |
author_sort |
Fatemeh Koohi |
title |
Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) |
title_short |
Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) |
title_full |
Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) |
title_fullStr |
Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) |
title_sort |
validation of the framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: tehran lipid and glucose study (tlgs) |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Public Health |
issn |
1471-2458 |
publishDate |
2021-04-01 |
description |
Abstract Background The Framingham hypertension risk score is a well-known and simple model for predicting hypertension in adults. In the current study, we aimed to assess the predictive ability of this model in a Middle Eastern population. Methods We studied 5423 participants, aged 20–69 years, without hypertension, who participated in two consecutive examination cycles of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). We assessed discrimination based on Harrell’s concordance statistic (c-index) and calibration (graphical comparison of predicted vs. observed). We evaluated the original, recalibrated (for intercept and slope), and revised (for beta coefficients) models. Results Over the 3-year follow-up period, 319 participants developed hypertension. The Framingham hypertension risk score performed well in discriminating between individuals who developed hypertension and those who did not (c-index = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.79–0.83). Initially, there was a systematic underestimation of the original risk score (events predicted), which was readily corrected by a simple model revision. Conclusions The revised Framingham hypertension risk score can be used as a screening tool in public health and clinical practice to facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions in high-risk Middle Eastern people. |
topic |
Hypertension Blood pressure Risk prediction Risk score Primary prevention |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10760-6 |
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