我國社會警報指標之研究

• Main Authors: 林秀貞, LIn, Hsiu-Chen
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 社會問題; 警報指標; 警報分數; 警戒線; 警報速度; 警報訊號; 警源變項; social issues; warning indicators; warning score; warning lines; warning speeds; warning signs
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22A2002001944%22.

臺灣地區過去三十年來，經濟發展快速，國民生活水準亦大幅提升，在各界戮力為經濟打拼，使我國經濟大幅起飛的同時，我們的社會發展卻在重經濟以及社會變遷影響下，逐漸產生一些可能阻礙社會整體健全發展的不正常現象，導致各種社會問題隨之出現，成為社會進步及創造優質生活的絆腳石，為提供政府及民間相關單位制訂或研擬社會問題防制政策時參考，本研究乃以「文獻法」、「主觀經驗法」及「主成份分析」，編製我國社會警報指標，以一數量化指標綜合評量我國社會問題潛在發展趨勢，並以「顯著水準法」訂定警戒線及對各年超過警戒線者發布警報訊號。 依據社會警報指標各領域社會問題警報分析結果， 87年各項社會問題警報速度超過「輕警」者有「家庭問題」及「犯罪問題」等二領域，尤其是「犯罪問題」更超過巨警，若綜合全體社會問題而言，87年綜合警報速度較前幾年緩和；另就近三年各領域社會問題警報速度觀察，平均較前三年快者有「家庭問題」、「犯罪問題」、「貧富不均問題」及「環境問題」等四領域，惟全體社會問題綜合結果，速度略緩。 === Exertion of the people has promoted the growth of the Taiwan economy for over three decades. However, social dysfunctions, resulted from all the emphases at the economic growth and the changes of the collective values, could have obstructed the development of the society as a whole. In order to served as the references in making social policies related, this study tries to organize "the Taiwan Social Warning Indicators" by statistic methods, such as literature search, subjective experience, and principal component. These quantitative indexes are expected to evaluate the potential tendency of the social issues in Taiwan. On the other hand, the statistical significance method is also applied to establish the warning lines and issue the warning signs when the annual increase rate of the indicator's value－the warning speed－ of the social issues are cross the warning line. In accordance with the analysis results of the social warning indicators in this study, the increase of warning speeds of the Taiwan social issues in 1998 regarding "family" and "crime" exceed the level of "light warning". The warning speed of the "crime issue" even exceeds the level of "extremely serious warning" among all. Furthermore, the warning speed of the comprehensive social issues in the same year is estimated at increasing more lightly than those of those issues in last few years. Another finding on the warning speeds of social issues in different fields is that the result of such a research from 1996 to 1998 is much worse in average on "family issue", "crime issue", "unequal fortune distribution issue", and "environmental issue" than that on the same issue from 1993 to 1995. But the warning speed of the social issues as a whole from 1996 to 1998 increases more slowly than that from 1993 to 1995.