The financial crisis of 2008 and its impact on the sectors of the brazilian economy: an approach quantile regressions and portfolio theory

nÃo hà === This study applies traditional techniques in Finance and Econometrics in order to analyze the impacts of Financial Crisis on some sectors of the Brazilian economy based upon market indicators provided by Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). Initially we apply the theory proposed by Markowitz...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Luiz Henrique Carvalho Braid
Other Authors: Andrei Gomes Simonassi
Format: Others
Language:Portuguese
Published: Universidade Federal do Cearà 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=7852
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Summary:nÃo hà === This study applies traditional techniques in Finance and Econometrics in order to analyze the impacts of Financial Crisis on some sectors of the Brazilian economy based upon market indicators provided by Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). Initially we apply the theory proposed by Markowitz to sectoral indicators for eight economic sectors and estimate efficient portfolios in the pre and post-financial crisis periods and we verify that the weights established in the two cases differ dramatically. After that, we estimate quantile regressions for three sectors: Mining, Metallurgic and Textiles are estimated confronting the its returns against the return of the market portfolio and the implicit volatility measured. First of all, the model captures the increase in the risk premium demanded by investors in times of crisis; in spite of the models allow us to infer that there is a change in consumer behavior in times of economic instability in order to make him more risk-tolerant. === O estudo utiliza tÃcnicas tradicionais de FinanÃas e Econometria para analisar os impactos da crise financeira de 2008 sobre alguns setores da economia brasileira, tomando por base os indicadores setoriais de mercado da FundaÃÃo GetÃlio Vargas (FGV). Inicialmente aplica-se a teoria de Markowitz aos indicadores setoriais de mercado de oito setores e estimam-se portfÃlios eficientes no perÃodo prà e pÃscrise financeira, constatando que os pesos atribuÃdos aos dois perÃodos diferem dramaticamente. Posteriormente, regressÃes quantÃlicas para os setores MineraÃÃo, Metalurgia e TÃxtil sÃo estimadas, confrontando o retorno setorial com o retorno da carteira de mercado e a volatilidade implÃcita. AlÃm de captar a elevaÃÃo do prÃmio de risco exigido pelos investidores em perÃodos de crise, os modelos permitem inferir que hà uma mudanÃa de comportamento do consumidor em perÃodos de instabilidade econÃmica no sentido de tornÃ-lo mais tolerante ao risco.