| Summary: | 碩士 === 大同工學院 === 事業經營學系 === 84 === Financial liberalization and internationalization have become a
new trend since a number of countries undertook financial
reform. As a result, credit cooperatives have been assuming
greater risks to sustain profit relative to competitive
pressures from other financial institutions. Further, the
recent increasing failures of financial institutions has aroused
attention on efforts to identify problem institutions for
supervisory authorities and management authorities to take
remedial action. This study attempts to develop an early
warning system for credit cooperatives with the ability to
detect problem credit cooperatives in advance.The methods
discussed in this study use factor analysis to find composite
variables by credit cooperatives financial indicators,
discriminant analysis and logit model to establish the
appropriate discriminant function. In addition, we discuss many
internal and external qualitative factors, which cannot easily
be quantified, that affect credit cooperative''''''''s health deeply.
The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows:1.
Five common factors identifying by factor analysis bear a
similar resemblance to CAMEL components: capital adequacy,
profitability, liquidity, efficiency and asset quality.2. In the
discriminant analysis, the 100 percent accuracy of model 1 is
better than 94.74 percent accuracy of model 2 and 98.7 percent
accuracy of model 3.3. The empirical results indicate that the
classification results from discriminant analysis compare
favorably with those from logit model.4. Except for model 1,
which comprised of the top fifteen credit cooperatives from
factor score rating and four failed credit cooperatives, model 2
and model 3 fail to predict the Changhua Fourth Credit
Cooperative failure. That is, we couldn''''''''t predict accurately by
using the discriminant analysis and the logit analysis.
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