THE APPLICATION OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM--CREDIT COOPERATIVE AS AN EXAMPLE

• Main Authors: Cho, Tsui-yueh, 卓翠月
• Other Authors: Hsien-che Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1996
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25923110139874308185

碩士 === 大同工學院 === 事業經營學系 === 84 === Financial liberalization and internationalization have become a new trend since a number of countries undertook financial reform. As a result, credit cooperatives have been assuming greater risks to sustain profit relative to competitive pressures from other financial institutions. Further, the recent increasing failures of financial institutions has aroused attention on efforts to identify problem institutions for supervisory authorities and management authorities to take remedial action. This study attempts to develop an early warning system for credit cooperatives with the ability to detect problem credit cooperatives in advance.The methods discussed in this study use factor analysis to find composite variables by credit cooperatives financial indicators, discriminant analysis and logit model to establish the appropriate discriminant function. In addition, we discuss many internal and external qualitative factors, which cannot easily be quantified, that affect credit cooperative''''''''s health deeply. The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows:1. Five common factors identifying by factor analysis bear a similar resemblance to CAMEL components: capital adequacy, profitability, liquidity, efficiency and asset quality.2. In the discriminant analysis, the 100 percent accuracy of model 1 is better than 94.74 percent accuracy of model 2 and 98.7 percent accuracy of model 3.3. The empirical results indicate that the classification results from discriminant analysis compare favorably with those from logit model.4. Except for model 1, which comprised of the top fifteen credit cooperatives from factor score rating and four failed credit cooperatives, model 2 and model 3 fail to predict the Changhua Fourth Credit Cooperative failure. That is, we couldn''''''''t predict accurately by using the discriminant analysis and the logit analysis.