| Summary: | 博士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程學系 === 88 === In this study, a fuzzy goal programming approach integrated with grey theory and input-output theory is used to construct an inter-industrial CO2 reduction model for simulating the abatement effects and economic impacts of various CO2 reduction strategies. The grey theory is applied to forecast industrial production values and amounts of energy consumption from year 2000 through 2020, and furthermore the amounts of industrial CO2 emission are estimated based on the forecasted energy consumption. The results are used as goals and boundary values in the CO2 reduction model. As for CO2 reduction strategies, changing energy price and imposing carbon taxes with various scenarios are drafted to simulate and evaluate their abatement effects and economic impacts. Moreover, emission trading is considered in this study to assess its impacts on industrial economic and CO2 reduction cost. In addition, installation of the NO.7 Naphtha Cracker Plant and the NO.8 Naphtha Cracker Plant are chosen as examples to explore the effluence of industrial policy on CO2 reduction.
The major findings of this study are summarized as follows:
1. A fixed value of development coefficient in the grey prediction model, GM(1,1), would result in over-estimation of the long period forecasting. Moreover, from results of stage by stage modeling, absolute values of development coefficients for each industry has shown a decreasing trend. This implies that gradually reducing absolute value of development coefficient will enhance the accuracy and rationality of forecasted results.
2. In view of CO2 reduction effect and reduction cost, changing coal price is recommended as the top priority among all energy price raising strategies since raising the other fuels prices simultaneously would reduce the total abatement effects and increase the loss in industrial GDP.
3. As for carbon taxes, scenario B5, based on Sweden’s carbon tax program would be the best choice, because the total GDP loss is smaller compared to other alternatives. In addition, the yearly raising percentage of tax rate is only 10%, which is relatively moderate for the industry to cope with pressure and to prepare their reduction goals.
4. This study indicates that CO2 reduction potential for the down-stream industries is far lower than the up-stream industries. Therefore, emission trading is recommended to implement together with energy price raising or carbon taxes. As for allocation principle of industrial emission permit, results illustrate that the grandfather rule would be more practicable than the other principles.
5. Installation of new plants such as no.7 and no. 8 naphtha cracker plants will lead to a significant increase in the petrochemical industry’s CO2 emission of year 2020. This implies that the reduction load and cost for each industry will increase significantly.
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