THE EFFECTS OF MARRIAGE AND MIGRANT PARTNER ON FERTILITY IN TAIWAN AREA

• Main Authors: Wang, Si-mei, 王錫美
• Other Authors: YUE, JACK C.
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/29830893566312936135

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 統計學系 === 93 === Total fertility rate of Taiwan area was around 1.8 in 1985~1997, and then went down quickly to 1.235 in 2003. Population ageing and fewer births are getting more serious because of the rapid fertility decline, and thus promoting fertility level becomes an important issue nowadays. Due to the fact that the majority of the live births in Taiwan are legitimate, the female marital status can be used to study the trend of fertility rates. Nevertheless, current measures of married women fertility are not appropriate for measuring the fertility rates. Thus, in this paper, we define another index ‘Accumulative Fertility Rate for Married Women’ for the married women and we found that the TFR of Taiwan area is closely linked to the proportion of marital women, especially in recent years. We also confirmed that the foreign brides have higher fertility rates, but the brides from the mainland China do not have significant higher fertility rates. We also studied the future proportion of marital women, using the methods of principal component analysis and time series analysis to project age-specific married proportion. Markov Chain was used to establish a model to project the population of married women.