| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 國際經濟研究所 === 96 === Association of Southeast Asian Nations（ASEAN）was first organized in the 1960s for the purpose of anti-communism. It has transformed into organization for economic integration in the 1990s. The influence of ASEAN+N in the East Asian area will increase in the future. Previous research on ASEAN seldom focused on both the economic integration and political relationship in the countries within and outside the organization, especially the role of Taiwan in the area. Using panel data, this thesis applies some variables usually used in the Gravity Model, and adds some dummy variables, such as ASEAN countries, Taiwan, common language, political relationship, and common border et.al to explore whether being a member in ASEAN helps increasing international trade for the past twenty years. In addition, we test whether the behavior of real exchange rate is different for member countries. We test for different sample periods according to the available data and find that the trading behavior has changed since 1992, when Thailand first proponed the idea of ASEAN Free Trade Area. The close relationship on trade between Taiwan and Southeast Asian Nations in the 1980s has been destroyed in the 1990s. Being a member in ASEAN helps increasing trade significantly. Comparing Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN, we find negative impacts on the four countries and the trading volume decreases mostly in Japan. Moreover, our research found that the hostile political relationship has negative influence on trade. As for the real exchange rate, the empirical results indicate that the movements of real exchange rates are not significantly different for members in ASEAN.
|
|---|
