Explore the Business Individual Health Insurance''s Underwriting Cycle in Taiwan by Second-Order Autoregressive Model and Markov Switching Model

• Main Authors: Mei-Ting Wang, 王美婷
• Other Authors: Shuo-Fen Hsu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59f8m8

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險所 === 96 === The main purpose of this paper are to validate the existence of individual health insurance''s underwriting cycle in Taiwan, and to discuss the variables which influence the underwriting cycle. This paper employs the Second-Order Autoregressive model to verify the existence of underwriting cycle. In addition, the cycle length of 5.74 months is also calculated. In model comparison, the prediction power of Second-Order Autoregressive model is superior to that of Markov Switching model. Furthermore, this paper discusses the relationship between several variables, i.e., the interest rate, GDP, rate of unemployment, medical expense (index) and loss ratio. The results find that the premium, loss, interest rate , medical expense (index) have influences on the loss ratio which suggests that the economic environment can explain partly the phenomenon of underwriting cycle.