Impacts of Mega Events, Economic Factors, and Volatility on Tourism Demand

• Main Authors: Ying-ChihChen, 陳盈志
• Other Authors: Hsin-Hong Kang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31928297256573100872

博士 === 國立成功大學 === 企業管理學系碩博士班 === 98 === This thesis aims to find out the impacts of mega events, economic factors, and volatility on tourism demand. Most of the past studies assumed variance of errors to be a constant, but in practice, time series of economic data have often exhibited the volatility clustering phenomenon. Hence, it is worth examining whether tourism demand volatility has ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Hetetroskedasticity) effects. Further, asymmetric effects, meaning that good and bad news differently affect volatility, and the leverage effect, meaning bad news influences volatility more than good news, ought to be studied as well. The impacts of economic factors and mega events on tourism demand are also what is examined in this thesis. The subjects are the tourism demand in China and Taiwan’s outbound tourism to China. To study the tourism demand in China, four models are built and compared to find an appropriate forecasting model of the tourism demand in China. Seasonality, ARCH effects, asymmetric effects, and leverage effects are found in estimating the conditional mean by seasonal ARIMA and in estimating the conditional variance of tourist arrivals by GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR GARCH. Meanwhile, whether mega events have impacts on tourism demand is examined by intervention analysis. In all the events studied, only SARS and the Great Sichuan Earthquake had significant effects. Judging by the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance, GARCH with intervention analysis is found to be the best in the four models. Secondly, an econometric model is built to estimate how economic factors and mega events influence Taiwan’s outbound tourism to China. Income, price, and the tourist number of the previous period are found to be significant independent variables. On the other hand, empirical results show that political events did not remarkably reduce Taiwanese people’s intention to travel to China while the SARS outbreak had a greater impact.