| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 99 === We found from the previous literature that the monetary policies are potentially correlated with the prices of commodities and exchange rate. We thus employ various time series methodologies to investigate the dynamic relationship among China’s and US’s monetary policies and the prices of commodities and exchange rate. The overall finding first shows that, whatever for prices of commodities or for exchange rate, there exist long-run equilibrium relationship among three macroeconomic variables considered. Moreover, pairs of GDP and prices of commodities and GDP and exchange rate are significantly interacted. From the impulse response analysis, with the exception of prices of commodities and exchange rate themselves, the shocks of GDP show relatively higher impacts on prices of commodities and exchange rate. On the other hand, the shocks of prices of commodities and exchange rate show a positive effect on the GDP and M2. Among the forecast error variances, the GDP well explains the variance of the prices of commodities and exchange rate; whereas, prices of commodities show strong power in explaining the variance of the M2. Since the GDP is the key factor affecting the trend of prices of commodities and exchange rate, we should suggest policy makers to focus on the economy stability in means of control the movement of prices of commodities and exchange rate. So far, all these have been interpreted that the quantity theory of money is not good enough to explain the impacts of G2’s monetary policies on prices of commodities and exchange rate.
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