House Price，Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Fluctuation

• Main Authors: Chien, Meirong, 錢美容
• Other Authors: Ni, Jenshi
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92646811605106863639

碩士 === 德明財經科技大學 === 服務業經營管理研究所 === 99 === Traditionally real estates is regarded as the asset with region-limititing characteristics and less liquidity. But, the Sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 had a big impact on global stock and foreign exchange markets. In 2008, some US giant, famous financial conglomerate bankrupted one after another, even triggered global financial crisis, and put global economy into serious recession. What is the degree of the influence of housing market to macro economy? Does the prosperity of housing market carry international transmission mechanism? This paper uses VAR Model of Time-Series model to interrelationship of fluctuations between housing market and macro-economy for US, Hong Kong, Mainland China and Taiwan. Find that the housing market of Hong Kong is significantly affected by the fluctuations of US and Mainland China market, and the housing markets of Taiwan are significantly affected by Hong Kong market. For the interest rate market, there is a mutual predictable function among US, Mainland China and Taiwan significantly. The Hong Kong interest rate market is significantly affected by the fluctuation of Mainland China and Taiwan market. The impacts of the changes of interest rates to the house price indexes showed a negative signal for each area. The US GDP growth rates are helpful to predict the variations of GDP growth rates of Hong Kong, Mainland China and Taiwan. The stock price indexes of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all have significant influences to house price indexes. The housing market of Hong Kong is significantly affected by the fluctuation of US and Mainland China market, and the housing markets of Taiwan are significantly affected by the fluctuation of Hong Kong. The changes of housing market have the characteristics of international transmission.