| Summary: | 碩士 === 玄奘大學 === 企業管理學系碩士在職專班 === 101 === In recent years, the birth rate in Taiwan has declined year by year and such factor generates negative effect directly to the number of new students enrolling at elementary schools. This depopulation trend has various effects of leading a sharp decrease in class size and demand for teachers number at schools, an increase in unemployed teachers, revision on Teachers’ Development Act, a reformation of the teachers’ retirement system, and the financial deficit for the government etc.. Because of this, the disequilibrium of teachers supply and demand is getting worse. The purpose of this study is to explore the current situation and problems of supply and demand of elementary teachers in Taiwan and to suggest feasible measures to the relevant institutions like the educational authorities and the instituion for teachers cultivation.
For this purpose, this paper is using the system dynamics approach to construct a dynamic model of the elementary school teachers’ supply and demand in Taiwan. The model uses causal loop diagrams for the five dimensions of: newly born population and total number of students, class size and total demand for teachers, teaching staff and demand for teachers, annual teacher supply and reserves, and adjustment of retirement conditions and retirement expenditures. Lastly, I construct an overall causal loop diagram for elementary school teachers supply and demand. With utilizing this system dynamic causal loop, the researcher can make use of a related feedback loop to fully understand the changes of supply and demand of elementary teachers as well as reference of policies planning for teachers’ cultivation. Using the newborn population to estimate the aggregate demand number of teachers, an analysis of the policy simulation suggests to: increase the birth rate, lower the class size, increase the number of teachers per class, decrease the amount of qualified teachers being cultivated, and promote the retirement rate of teachers, etc. Finally, suggestions for the main research topics and methods are being pointed out for the subsequent research.
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