| Summary: | 碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 102 === Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics as well as domestic research institutes currently only focus on the prediction of overall GDP rather than constructing economy forecasting model according to each industry. With the purpose of complementing the GDP forecasting model of domestic service industry, the employment of the current quarter model (CQM) invented by Professor Klein, a Nobel Laureate in Economics, and the extensive adoption of both domestic and overseas main economy indicator, the study established the CQM of GDP of the top three sub industries (wholesale and retail industry, real estate industry and finance & insurance industry) of Taiwanese service industry and simulated the impacts of domestic situation fluctuations on the three sub industries so as to facilitate policy making by government agency and research institute.
The research results shows: CQM model has excellent simulation performance both inside and outside the sample, with predicted annual growth rate of the three sub industries in 2013, which are as follows: wholesale & retail industry was 2.50%, real estate industry was 4.21% and finance & insurance industry was 2.81%respectively. On top of that, the main growth and recession factors influencing the three industries can be tracked through the model. Taking the food safety scandals severely undermined economy in the first half of the year and the electricity price policy with forthcoming implementation for example, impulse response of the changes of the two variants of Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Enterprise total power consumption to three service industries was analyzed. It is found out that when the overall economy environment is not good, recession comes down to wholesale & retail industry and finance & insurance industry, while the latter is more serious. On the contrary, real estate industry manifests the trend of growth. The above analysis illuminate that the overall economy situation has different influence on the three industries, further proving that establishing CQM model of different industries can reflect the actual situation of industry better, compared with overall GDP prediction of service industry.
CQM model has the character of high frequency data orientation, which allows it to cope with impact assessment of short-term external events and master prospects shift. Besides, the establishment of such model can adjust and correct predicted results according to updated information absorbed every month and dynamic condition in the hope of assisting domestic prediction of the latest boom.
|
|---|
