The Evaluation of Post-Earthquake Fire Risk in Taipei,Taiwan

• Main Authors: Shao-Hua Shang, 尚少華
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48236219525876637781

博士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 建築系 === 103 === The research focused on great Taipei area and simulated San-chiao fault triggered an earthquake, assumed the center was located at the upper area near Taipei City, earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale, simulated 100 sets of earthquake events ( Taipei City and New Taipei City) with Monte Carlo Simulation, demonstrated in Simple earthquake seismic system (SESS) and Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), calculated post- earthquake fire risk evaluation, conducted post-earthquake fire simulation, examined disaster rescue capability from fire station numbers in both Taipei city and New Taipei City, performed post-earthquake fire uncertainty analysis, and assessed fire rescue capability in great Taipei area. The SESS analysis results indicated that the original risk probability was Taipei City 25.51% and New Taipei City 73.19%, and increased to 56.18% and 100% with the activation of a regional mutual aid system. The original risk calculated by the TELES was Taipei City 53.51% and New Taipei City 92.2%, and both increased to 100% of the overall fire rescue capability requirements after the regional mutual aid system was launched. Although the SESS results indicated that Taipei City remained below the 60% risk threshold following the launch of the regional mutual aid system, the rescue capability was substantially increased. The TELES analysis results indicated that the regional mutual aid system can increase local fire rescue capability and nearly satisfy all disaster resource deployment requirements. Although the location, scale, type of earthquakes and the resulting casualties are always uncertain, the results of this study was verified by 2 independently developed earthquake damage estimation systems and can provide an effective reference for post-earthquake fire rescue deployment assessments.