Integrating Customer Demand and Forecast to Enhance Inventory Management

• Main Authors: Shang-lin LU, 呂尚霖
• Other Authors: Hui-Ming Wee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32006838326352947551

碩士 === 中原大學 === 工業與系統工程研究所 === 105 === In recent years, supply chain activities play an important role in society and environment. In order to avoid the supply chain downstream demand running out of stock problems, the upstream end of the inventory system is controlled to monitor the downstream demand changes. Therefore, the replenishment management within the supply chain is very important. Compared with the traditional replenishment strategy, which requires more complex parameter operations to find the optimal solution, this study uses the Theory of Constraints (TOC) and demand-pull (Buffer Management). Supplemented by an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) strategy, one can replicate and refer to the customer''s immediate demand information and demand trends. In this study, we consider the semiconductor packaging industry which is characterized by short life cycle and large demand fluctuation. Therefore, we use the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) to integrate customer demand forecast with customer actual demand to monitor the trend of changes in customer demand. We then observe in the buffer zone the amount of inventory in the zone. EWMA will indicate positive and negative demand trend; management can then adjust the order quantity. EWMA features can reflect the small changes in the trend and quickly adjust the replenishment strategy. In this study, the actual data of a domestic packaging plant is used. Different weights and some parameter variations are done for different demand characteristics of the products. They are large (small) demand variations, large (small) forecast variations, large (small) demand and forecast variations. The results of our model in this study not only strengthen the theory of behind the replenishment policy, it also reduces the overall inventory cost. Keywords：Supply chain management, theory of constraints, buffer management, demand-pull strategy, exponentially weighted moving average