| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄科技大學 === 國際企業系 === 107 === The deep-sea transactions of ethylene monomer were dramatically active in recent years due to the supply chain change of ethylene in North-East Asia. Since the ethylene monomer can be obtained from shale gas instead of crude oil. It was interested in understanding the price transfer relationship of ethylene between those regions, North America, Middle East, Western Europe, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia. This study analyzed the relationship of ethylene price in each two regions via Vector Auto-regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Johansen Co-integration Test, and Granger Causality Test from January 2005 to December 2018.
Through Granger Causality Test, it reveals there is long-term co-integration equilibrium in the price of ethylene between NEA and SEA. Also there were two-way feedback or one-way causality between two nearby regions. However there was no causality between SEA and NAM market.
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