| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北教育大學 === 社會與區域發展學系碩士班 === 107 === Urban planning (land-use planning) is very important for a city. Apart from social and economic development, urban planning needs to consider the impacts and losses that may be caused by disasters. However, there are no systematic methods of risk assessment and management strategic planning for flood disasters, which occurred often in Taiwan, to decrease the risks in urban areas. Therefore, applying systems thinking, systems analysis and the concept and method of Managing for Results (MFRs), this study clarified the characteristics of flood disaster risk, involving the nature mechanism of disasters, management measures, and the characteristics of land-use planning, to identify a conceptual framework of strategic planning of risk management for flood disasters, a conceptual system framework of flood disasters, and flood disaster risk assessment units. Based on the components and attributes of the conceptual system framework, this study established a flood disaster risk assessment method, involving the aspects of Generation-Accumulation-Exposure-Vulnerability for the disaster nature mechanism, the aspects of Mitigation-Receding-Reduction-Resistance for management measures, and 25 indicators in these aspects. This study develops an optimization model with the solving method of Integrated Constraints of Management Phase for Triple Stages of Classes for Boundary Implicit Enumeration (ICMPTSCBIE) based on the characteristics of the double-layer triple-class multi-stage multi-plate-option. The optimal strategy of the minimal risk meeting the constraints of management costs and evacuation persons can then be found to reduce flood disaster risks by effective resource allocation and utilization. In order to implement the methodology specifically, this study integrates environmental information technology of Microsoft Visual Studio, ArcGIS Desktop, and ArcGIS Engine to establish a prototype information system of strategic planning for flood disaster risk management. Zhubei urban planning district, which is used as a case, is conceptually divided into 7 flood disaster risk assessment units. Combinations of management options created for each unit belong to high risk level (risks = 6.65~7.75) are up to 1030. Using the optimization model with the ICMPTSCBIE method, the optimal solution is obtained with meeting the constraints of management costs and evacuation persons, and leads the risk level of urban planning district reducing from 7.75 to 4.8. Analytical results show that the proposed methodology of strategic planning of risk management for flood disasters can be used to simultaneously assess risks and generate strategies. The conflicts among risks, costs, and evacuation persons for each disaster risk assessment unit can be well solved to obtain the optimal management strategy. Research results are expected to be references for strategic planning of risk management for flood disasters by relative authorities of disaster prevention and land-use planning (urban planning).
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