Decadal variability of summer extreme heat in central-eastern China and its synergistic effects by the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific SST

• Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Main Authors: Tiejun Xie, Hui Gao, Ting Ding, Xintong Chen, Wei Wang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01092-y

Abstract It was found that the Central-eastern China’s summer extreme heat (CECSH) has a decadal variability with a cycle of about 70 years and is significantly positively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) core area sea surface temperature (SST; AMOCORE) and the tropical western Pacific SST (WPSST) in boreal summer. Diagnostic analyses such as synergistic diagnostic and linear baroclinic model (LBM) experiments show that the warm AMOCORE and WPSST in boreal summer can generate the localized heat dome (HD) over Mongolia to northeast China by exciting local convection and subsequent propagation, respectively, which in turn directly influences the CECSH decadal variability through compression of the atmosphere and temperature transport. The empirical models of the CECSH decadal variability were constructed based on the AMOCORE or the WPSST separately and synergistically considering both, and the empirical model considering the synergistic effects of the AMOCORE and the WPSST had better simulation capability.