Skillful seasonal prediction of the 2022–23 mega soil drought over the Yangtze River basin by combining dynamical climate prediction and copula analysis

An unprecedented soil moisture drought broke out over the Yangtze River basin (YRB) in the summer of 2022 and lasted until the spring of 2023, caused great economic losses and serious environmental issues. With the rapid onset and long-lasting duration, the mega soil drought challenges the current s...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors:	Yumiao Wang, Xing Yuan, Yuxiu Liu, Wenyan Wang
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	IOP Publishing 2024-01-01
Subjects:	drought evolution seasonal prediction NMME copula Yangtze River basin
Online Access:	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad4978

Similar Items

Did a skillful prediction of near-surface temperatures help or hinder forecasting of the 2012 US drought?
by: Jonghun Kam, et al.
Published: (2021-01-01)

High Temperature Accelerates Onset Speed of the 2022 Unprecedented Flash Drought Over the Yangtze River Basin
by: Yumiao Wang, et al.
Published: (2023-11-01)

The patterns, magnitude, and drivers of unprecedented 2022 mega-drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China
by: Yi Liu, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)

Using Copula Method to Analyze Drought Frequency in Songhua River Basin
by: LIAO Xianwei, et al.
Published: (2021-03-01)

Unlocking the Potential of Dynamical Models for Drought Forecasting in Iran: Insights From Multi‐Model Ensemble Analysis
by: Zahra Eslami, et al.
Published: (2025-07-01)

Statistical refinement of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecasts over Karoon basin, Iran
by: Farhad Yazdandoost, et al.
Published: (2023-08-01)

A novel copula-based index for agricultural drought monitoring: integrating vegetation response and meteorological drought dynamics in the middle–lower Yangtze River Basin
by: Xinyi Lan, et al.
Published: (2025-09-01)

Seasonal forecasts have sufficient skill to inform some agricultural decisions
by: Ashish Kondal, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Analysis of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Fuhe River Basin Based on Copula Function
by: LONG Peng, et al.
Published: (2024-07-01)

Improving seasonal precipitation forecasts in the Western United States through statistical downscaling
by: B Vernon, et al.
Published: (2025-01-01)

Spatial heterogeneity and environmental drivers of drought vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin
by: Yuting Yang, et al.
Published: (2025-10-01)

Impacts of Drought and Heatwave on the Vegetation and Ecosystem in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022
by: Siyuan Chen, et al.
Published: (2024-08-01)

Study on the propagation probability characteristics and prediction model of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in basin based on copula function
by: Huiliang Wang, et al.
Published: (2022-09-01)

Propagation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Meteorological Drought to Soil Drought in the Upper Reaches of the Shiyang River Based on the Copula Function
by: Junju Zhou, et al.
Published: (2024-11-01)

Interpreting seasonal droughts over the Yangtze River Basin utilizing anomalies of local-scale atmospheric circulation
by: Hao Yin, et al.
Published: (2025-04-01)

How Severe Was the 2022 Flash Drought in the Yangtze River Basin?
by: Liyan Yang, et al.
Published: (2024-11-01)

Development of multivariate standardized drought index for large lake basins based on the copula function: A case study of Hongze Lake Basin, China
by: Yun Luo, et al.
Published: (2023-12-01)

Copula-based comprehensive drought identification and evaluation over the Xijiang River Basin in South China
by: Qingqing Tian, et al.
Published: (2023-10-01)

Did a skillful prediction of sea surface temperatures help or hinder forecasting of the 2012 Midwestern US drought?
by: Jonghun Kam, et al.
Published: (2014-01-01)

Historical Evolution and Future Prediction of Hydrological Droughts in the Upper Yangtze River Basin
by: Yun Wang, et al.
Published: (2024-12-01)

Copula-Based Joint Drought Index Using Precipitation, NDVI, and Runoff and Its Application in the Yangtze River Basin, China
by: Hongfei Wei, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)

Spatiotemporal Responses and Vulnerability of Vegetation to Drought in the Ili River Transboundary Basin: A Comprehensive Analysis Based on Copula Theory, SPEI, and NDVI
by: Yaqian Li, et al.
Published: (2025-02-01)

Spatiotemporal Evolution Features of the 2022 Compound Hot and Drought Event over the Yangtze River Basin
by: Lilu Cui, et al.
Published: (2024-04-01)

Temporal and Phenological Modulation of the Impact of Increasing Drought Conditions on Vegetation Growth in a Humid Big River Basin: Insights From Global Comparisons
by: Junlan Xiao, et al.
Published: (2025-03-01)

Monthly Ocean Primary Productivity Forecasting by Joint Use of Seasonal Climate Prediction and Temporal Memory
by: Lei Xu, et al.
Published: (2023-03-01)

A novel multi-timescale comprehensive drought index for drought monitoring in the Xijiang River Basin
by: Liping Wang, et al.
Published: (2025-10-01)

Impacts of Drought and Climatic Factors on Vegetation Dynamics in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin, China
by: Weixia Jiang, et al.
Published: (2022-02-01)

Comprehensive evaluation of seasonal forecasts from NMME and statistical models over the Blue Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) watershed
by: Mekonnen Gebremichael, et al.
Published: (2025-02-01)

Approaching the 1.5 °C warming threshold and escalating seasonal warm extremes in the Yangtze River Basin
by: Adil Dilawar, et al.
Published: (2025-10-01)

Widespread reduction in gross primary productivity caused by the compound heat and drought in Yangtze River Basin in 2022
by: Tingyu Li, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Patterns and the Effect of the Relationship between Meteorological Drought and Vegetation Dynamics in the Yangtze River Basin Based on Remotely Sensed Data
by: Xiujuan Dong, et al.
Published: (2023-07-01)

Effects of ecological drought on vegetation in Inland River Basin of Inner Mongolia Plateau
by: Hongxiang Wang, et al.
Published: (2025-10-01)

Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin
by: Mei Mei, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Will the 2022 compound heatwave–drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?
by: Ai-Qing Feng, et al.
Published: (2024-06-01)

Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin
by: Zhengxuan Yuan, et al.
Published: (2024-08-01)

Study on the Transfer Threshold from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in Dongjiang River Basin
by: MO Xiaomei, et al.
Published: (2021-01-01)

Bayesian Joint Probability Approach for Post‐Processing Monthly Precipitation Prediction in Northwest Iran
by: Z. Javanshiri, et al.
Published: (2024-08-01)

Understanding the Role of the North Pacific Victoria Mode in ENSO Predictability Based on the NMME Hindcasts
by: Zhengyi Ren, et al.
Published: (2025-02-01)

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Drought and Its Driving Factors in Yangtze River Basin Based on SPEI
by: Jieru Wei, et al.
Published: (2022-11-01)

Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin
by: Fang Zhao, et al.
Published: (2025-03-01)