Evaluation of a Biomathematical Modeling Software Tool for the Prediction of Risk in Flight Schedules Compared Against Incidence of Fatigue Reports

• Published in: Safety
• Main Authors: Jaime K. Devine, Jake Choynowski, Steven R. Hursh
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
• Subjects: fatigue risk management; biomathematical modeling; fatigue reporting; aviation; odds ratio aviation accidents and investigations; aviation safety
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/11/1/4

Background: Modeling tools should be tested against real-world outcomes to confirm their predictive ability compared to random chance. Insights is an analytical tool within the biomathematical modeling software SAFTE-FAST that identifies work patterns that consistently result in elevated fatigue risk. This study investigated the ability of Insights to correctly identify duties with an associated fatigue report using previously collected flight schedule and report data. Methods: Planned and completed flight roster schedules were analyzed using SAFTE-FAST Insights after the rosters had been flown. Fatigue reports were independently linked to planned and completed schedules at the duty level. Odds ratio (OR) analysis investigated the ability of Insights to predict which duties would be linked to a fatigue report. Differences in duties were compared using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and a two-sample <i>t</i>-test. Results: There were 157 fatigue reports out of 78,061 planned duties and 235 fatigue reports out of 82,612 completed duties. Insights had 3.04 odds of correctly identifying fatigue reports in planned duties but 0.41 odds for completed duties. Discussion: Insights showed good odds of correctly identifying a fatigue report duty using planned schedules but poor odds of identifying a fatigue report duty from completed schedules. Completed duties started later in the day and were shorter in duration than planned duties. Day-of-operations schedule changes may have reduced the fatigue risk in response to the fatigue reports.