Disease burden of trachea, bronchus and lung cancer 1990–2021 and global trends projected to 2035

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Xin Zhang, Jing Zou, Jinghua Ning, Run Qu, Yanhong Zhao, Congcong Lv, Yi Liang, Yuzhe Zhang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-02-01
• Subjects: TBL; Epidemiology; Regional disparities; ARIMA; BAPC; Joinpoint regression analysis
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90537-8

Abstract Tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (TBL) is among the most common malignancies worldwide, with persistently high incidence and mortality rates, posing a significant threat to public health. However, existing studies on TBL disease burden are often limited to specific regions or short-term trends, lacking systematic and predictive analyses. This study comprehensively evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of TBL across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, utilizing predictive models to estimate trends from 2022 to 2035. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to systematically analyze the prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with TBL. Age-standardized rates (ASR) were used to quantify disease burden. Historical trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis, while ARIMA and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were employed to predict future trends. The study also incorporated the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) to investigate the impact of socioeconomic development on TBL burden. In 2021, the global ASPR, ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs for TBL were 37.28, 26.43, 23.50, and 638.60 per 100,000 population, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, ASPR increased slightly (0.09 per 100,000), while ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs declined by 0.07, 0.15, and 0.23 per 100,000, respectively. Regionally, the highest ASPR was observed in the high-income Asia-Pacific region (69.79 per 100,000), while East Asia recorded the highest ASIR (43.41 per 100,000) and ASMR (38.53 per 100,000). Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest burden. Gender analysis showed that males had a significantly higher TBL burden than females, but their burden declined over the study period. In contrast, females, particularly in older age groups, experienced an increase in burden. Future predictions indicate that the overall TBL burden will decline between 2022 and 2035; however, the burden among females and older adults is projected to rise, with a marked increase in female ASPR. This study highlights the global and regional trends in TBL burden from 1990 to 2021 and provides predictions for future burden. Although the overall burden is declining, significant disparities exist across genders and regions, with East Asia and high-income North America warranting particular attention. Females and older adults are priority groups for future interventions. The findings underscore the importance of early screening, targeted interventions, and region-specific strategies to optimize public health policies, resource allocation, and tailored prevention efforts.