Stochastic Modeling of a Measles Outbreak in Brazil

Development of mathematical models and its numerical implementations are essential tools in epidemiological modeling. Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model, proposed by Kermack and McKendrick, in 1927, is a widely used deterministic model which serves as a basis for more involved...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics
Main Authors: M. Lau, Z. G. Arenas
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Matemática Aplicada e Computacional 2023-07-01
Subjects:
Stochastic epidemiological models
SIR model
Measles outbreak
Online Access:https://tcam.sbmac.org.br/tema/article/view/1670
Description
Summary:Development of mathematical models and its numerical implementations are essential tools in epidemiological modeling. Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model, proposed by Kermack and McKendrick, in 1927, is a widely used deterministic model which serves as a basis for more involved mathematical models. In this work, we consider two stochastic versions of the SIR model for analysing a measles outbreak in Ilha Grande, Rio de Janeiro, in 1976; Continuous Time Markov Chain and Stochastic Differential Equations.  The SIR Continuous Time Markov Chain model is used to extract specific information from the measles outbreak, obtaining results in excellent agreement with the reported epidemic values. Numerical simulations are performed in Python.
ISSN:2676-0029

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