| Summary: | The electrification of paratransit fleets offers a pathway towards sustainable mobility in many African and Global South cities. Planning this transition is difficult because operations are decentralised, unscheduled, and shaped by complex social and institutional dynamics. Unlike structured transport in the Global North, paratransit lacks fixed routes, centralised ownership, and reliable operational data, making conventional electrification models inadequate.This paper presents a system-of-systems framework for simulating paratransit electrification, integrating passenger demand, driver behaviour, vehicle dynamics, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. The framework also incorporates stakeholder perspectives, including drivers, owners, touts, associations, and regulators, recognising that governance and equity strongly affect technical feasibility. A prioritisation matrix highlights which components are most critical under different conditions, such as weak grids, limited capital, or scarce data.Applied here to South Africa’s minibus taxis, the framework is parameterised and transferable to other informal, demand-responsive systems across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. By linking technical modelling with institutional and equity considerations, the study provides planners and policymakers with decision-support for anticipating impacts, identifying data requirements, and designing context-appropriate strategies for a just and effective energy transition.
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