| 總結: | Introduction
Smoking prevalence and age of smoking
initiation (AOI) are two important variables for tobacco
control programs. The study aimed to compare the
prevalence of smoking between three WHO STEPS (STEPwise
approach to surveillance) surveys and the AOI between
males and females, using the Bayesian approach.
Methods
We made three null hypotheses (H0) at a 5% level
of significance: the smoking prevalence in the 2019 WHO
STEPS survey is similar to the previous two surveys (2008
vs 2019, and 2013 vs 2019); mean AOI between males and
females is similar within 2019 survey. Both classical and
Bayesian hypotheses were tested. In the Bayesian hypothesis,
the Bayes factor (BF) and robust analyses were performed
through the Markov chain simulation-based estimation
method.
Results
We found no difference in smoking prevalence
between the 2013 and 2019 surveys (BF0- =56.59). In
contrast, there is strong evidence of the difference (BF0-
=2.38×10-43) in smoking prevalence between the 2008 and
2019 surveys. Next, there is no evidence of a difference in the
mean log AOI between males and females (BF01=12.54). The
sequential analysis showed strong to very strong evidence
for the H0 for AOI (BF10 1),
respectively.
Conclusions
Our findings go beyond classical hypothesis
testing on smoking behaviors and highlight the importance of
the BF for the decision-making process in the tobacco control
program. Further, the findings suggest that immediate efforts
should be made to understand the underlying cause behind
the stationary prevalence rate of the smoking population in
the last five years.
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