Quantifying greenhouse gas emission risks from natural gas pipeline incidents

• Published in: Nexus
• Main Authors: Hongfang Lu, Kaihui Song, Yuli Shan, Y. Frank Cheng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2025-12-01
• Subjects: natural gas pipeline; pipeline incident; greenhouse gas emissions; pipeline age; emission factor
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950160125000440

Natural gas pipelines are key energy infrastructures worldwide. Pipeline incidents frequently result in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that remain unaccounted for in carbon inventories. This study analyzed natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States, finding that such incidents released 14.71–18.20 million tCO2e during 2010–2021, representing an additional 2.67%–3.30% of total emissions. Presently, the US Environmental Protection Agency inventories record emissions during routine normal operations while excluding the incident-based releases. Regional patterns show that US Gulf Coast and South Central states have substantially higher emission risks than other regions. Pipeline age analysis reveals a non-monotonic risk pattern, with dual peaks driven by distinct failure mechanisms. Early-life pipelines (0–10 years) have elevated risks resulting from equipment failures, while long-life serviced pipelines experience degradation-related risks. The top 10% of incidents generate 57% of total emissions. Targeting the high-emitting incidents could reduce cumulative emissions by over 40%, highlighting substantial mitigation opportunities through improved monitoring and management strategy. Broader context: Natural gas pipelines represent critical energy infrastructure spanning 500,000 km across the United States, yet their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions through operational incidents remains poorly quantified and often overlooked in climate mitigation strategies. As natural gas continues to serve as a bridge fuel in the energy transition, accurately accounting for all emission sources becomes essential for meeting climate commitments and ensuring infrastructure resilience. This research addresses a critical gap not in conventional accounting but in quantifying emission risks and emission factors from pipeline incidents. While routine operational emissions receive considerable attention, incident-related emissions can be large in scale despite being less frequent. Our findings show that US pipeline incidents emit as much as 4 to 5 coal-fired power plants annually, yet they are excluded from official inventories. The identification of regional disparities and age-related risks provides actionable insights for pipeline safety and emissions mitigation. This work supports data-driven policy, guides infrastructure investments, and underscores the need to incorporate incident emissions into future climate strategies.