Evaluating the Potential of Copulas for Modeling Correlated Scenarios for Hydro, Wind, and Solar Energy

• Published in: Forecasting
• Main Authors: Anderson M. Iung, Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira, Andre L. M. Marcato, Guilherme A. A. Pereira
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
• Subjects: renewable energy; copulas; wind generation; hydro generation; solar generation; dependence
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/7/1/7

The increasing global adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources has transformed the use of forecasting, scenario planning, and other techniques for managing their inherent generation uncertainty and interdependencies. What were once desirable enhancements are now fundamental requirements. This is more prominent in Brazil, given the large hydro capacity that has been installed. Given the need to understand the interdependencies within variable renewable energy systems, copula-based techniques are receiving increasing consideration. The objective is to explore and model the correlation and complementarity, based on the copula approach, evaluating the potential of this methodology considering a case test composed of hydro, wind, and solar assets. The proposed framework simulated joint scenarios for monthly natural energy (streamflows transformed into energy), wind speed and solar radiation, applied to a small case test, considering historical data from the Brazilian energy system. The results demonstrate that simulated scenarios are validated by their ability to replicate key statistical attributes of the historical record, as well as the interplay and complementarity among hydrology, wind speed, and solar radiation.