A unique Markov chain Monte Carlo method for forecasting wind power utilizing time series model

• Published in: Alexandria Engineering Journal
• Main Authors: Fuad S. Al-Duais, Razaz S. Al-Sharpi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2023-07-01
• Subjects: Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Time series prediction; Wind power output forecasting; Gibbs sampling
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S111001682300371X

Concerns that impair human societies frequently include a heavy dependence on petroleum and coal and emissions of greenhouse gases. Thus, adopting renewable energy sources, such as wind power, has become a practical solution to this problem. Therefore, to carry out the research on wind velocity energy, a time-series structure is necessary. This study uses the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to estimate short-term and long-term sustained winds. The significance of building a wind energy system is initially discussed, after which a wind velocity time-series framework based on a SARIMA is presented, followed by a short-term and Long-term wind speed projection. Furthermore, a methodology utilizing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is suggested to establish a wind energy time-series analysis. This framework draws a Markov chain for time-series data on wind energy to maintain stochasticity and realize the probability transition matrix. Gibbs sampling is employed as well. The model's forecasting abilities were tested using the original database and various efficiency assessment measures, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with efficiency of 13.09 and 1.03. In this study, a framework with the highest KGE and WI as well as the lowest RMSE and MAE was chosen. The findings demonstrate that the approach used in the operation provides outstanding predictability.