Assessing the Impact of Assimilated Remote Sensing Retrievals of Precipitation on Nowcasting a Rainfall Event in Attica, Greece

Accurate short-term rainfall forecasting, an essential component of the broader framework of nowcasting, is crucial for managing extreme weather events. Traditional forecasting approaches, whether radar-based or satellite-based, often struggle with limited spatial coverage or temporal accuracy, redu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrology
Main Authors: Aikaterini Pappa, John Kalogiros, Maria Tombrou, Christos Spyrou, Marios N. Anagnostou, George Varlas, Christine Kalogeri, Petros Katsafados
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/8/198
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Summary:Accurate short-term rainfall forecasting, an essential component of the broader framework of nowcasting, is crucial for managing extreme weather events. Traditional forecasting approaches, whether radar-based or satellite-based, often struggle with limited spatial coverage or temporal accuracy, reducing their effectiveness. This study tackles these challenges by implementing the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) enhanced with a forward advection nowcasting module, integrating multiple remote sensing rainfall datasets. Specifically, we combine weather radar data with three different satellite-derived rainfall products (H-SAF, GPM, and TRMM) to assess their impact on nowcasting performance for a rainfall event in Attica, Greece (29–30 September 2018). The results demonstrate that combining high-resolution radar data with the broader coverage and high temporal frequency of satellite retrievals, particularly H-SAF, leads to more accurate predictions with lower uncertainty. The assimilation of H-SAF with radar rainfall retrievals (HX experiment) substantially improved forecast skill, reducing the unbiased Root Mean Square Error by almost 60% compared to the control experiment for the 60 min rainfall nowcast and 55% for the 90 min rainfall nowcast. This work validates the effectiveness of the specific LAPS/advection configuration and underscores the importance of multi-source data assimilation for weather prediction.
ISSN:2306-5338