Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Assessment for the Reykjavik Capital Area

• الحاوية / القاعدة: Buildings
• المؤلفون الرئيسيون: Bjarni Bessason, Rajesh Rupakhety, Jón Örvar Bjarnason
• التنسيق: مقال
• اللغة: الإنجليزية
• منشور في: MDPI AG 2023-11-01
• الموضوعات: disaster preparedness; emergency planning; seismic vulnerability; seismic fragility; risk maps
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/13/12/2919

About two-thirds of the population in Iceland lives in the Reykjavik capital area (RCA), which is close to active volcanoes and seismic zones. In the period 1900–2019, a total of 53 earthquakes of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mo>≥</mo><mn>5.0</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> struck in these zones. The two largest events in the Reykjanes Peninsula, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mn>6.36</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mn>6.12</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, occurred in 1929 and 1968, respectively. Both events were less than 20 km from the outskirts of the RCA. Late in the year 2020, the seismicity on the peninsula greatly increased due to magma intrusion and volcanic activity, which has so far resulted in three eruptions, in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and six earthquakes of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mo>≥</mo><mn>5.0</mn><mo>.</mo><mo> </mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>Based on historical and geological data, the ongoing activity is probably the initial phase of an active period ahead that could continue for many decades, and has the potential to trigger larger earthquakes like those in 1929 and 1968. Further east, in the South Iceland Seismic Zone, two earthquakes of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mn>6.52</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and 6.44 struck in June 2000, and in May 2008, a <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>w</mi></mrow></msub><mn>6.31</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> earthquake occurred. In both cases, around 5000 buildings were affected. Insurance loss data from these events have been used to develop empirical vulnerability models for low-rise buildings. In this study, the loss data are used to calibrate seismic vulnerability models in terms of the source-site distance. For a given magnitude scenario, this provides a simpler representation of seismic vulnerability and is useful for emergency planning and disaster management. These models are also used to compute different types of scenario risk maps for the RCA for a repeat of the 1929 earthquake.