Application and verification of the theory of socio-technical tipping points for battery-electric long-haul heavy-duty trucks in Germany

• Published in: Sustainable Futures
• Main Authors: Konrad Boettger, Susanne Lehner
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2026-06-01
• Subjects: Sustainable; Transportation; Socio-technical tipping points; Battery electric trucks
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188826002972

Battery-electric heavy-duty trucks for long-haul transports are currently opening up new opportunities for reducing CO2 emissions. This has the potential to generate immediate and substantial gains in energy and resource efficiency within the efficiency driven logistics sector. The aim of this study is to examine the application and verification of the theory of socio-technical tipping points in the context of battery-electric trucks and to analyze the current stage of development in Germany and Europe.The analysis shows that the immaterial system element including aspects such as public awareness, social acceptance and policy attention has already reached a tipping point. In contrast, the material (infrastructure, production capacities) and technological system elements (vehicle and battery technology) have not yet crossed the necessary tipping points. Based on current trends, a time horizon of approximately five years is projected for the overall market to tip and for BE trucks to move beyond their niche status.The findings demonstrate that the theory of socio-technical tipping points provides a valuable framework for explaining and forecasting the market diffusion. Therefore battery-electric long-haul trucks offering important implications for policy, industry, and infrastructure development.