Evaluation and Projection of Extreme Temperature Indices over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by CMIP6 Models

• Published in: Gaoyuan qixiang
• Main Authors: Wanhong LI, Ying XU
• Format: Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Science Press, PR China 2023-04-01
• Subjects: qinghai-xizang plateau; cmip6; extreme temperature indices; projection
• Online Access: http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2022.00032
• ISSN: 1000-0534

Using historical and SSP emission scenarios simulation results from 28 global climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP6） and CN05.1 grid observation data produced by the National Climate Center， based on the evaluation of 28 global climate models over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau（TP） extreme temperature indices simulation effect， the trend of the future extreme temperature indices of the QXP under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios is predicted.The evaluation results show that the multi-model ensemble average simulation results are more stable and can simulate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature indices， but compared with observations， different indices have different deviations.The estimated results show that， relative to 1995 -2014， annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature（TXx）， annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature （TNn）， and warm days （TX90p） over the QXP will increase in the future， with the number of frost days （FD）， icing days （ID）， and cold days （TN10p） showed a decreasing trend.TNn increased significantly compared with TXx over the QXP.TX90p increased significantly in the southwest of the plateau， while the FD， ID， and TN10p decreased significantly in the southeast of the plateau.Under the SSP1-1.9 scenario， the extreme temperature index has a small change in the 21st century.As the radiative forcing increases， the frequency of the index also increases.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario， when China achieves its carbon peak before 2030， the growth of TXx， TNn， and TX90p over the QXP will not exceed 1.12 ℃， 0.84 ℃， and 8.4%， respectively， and the reduction of FD， ID， and TN10p will not exceed 9.1 days， 9.7 days and 2.6%， respectively.When China achieves carbon neutrality before 2060， the increase of TXx， TNn， and TX90p over the TP will not exceed 1.72 ℃， 1.48 ℃， and 15%， respectively， and the decrease of FD， ID， and TN10p will not exceed 15.6 days， 17Days， 3.4%， respectively.