| Summary: | Physics-based simulations of lithium-ion battery thermal runaway (TR) and thermal propagation (TP) enable the assessment of diverse temperature behaviors among individual cells. These behaviors are primarily driven by variations in thermal properties and the amount of heat released during thermal decomposition. However, given the inherent variability in thermal property measurements, the specific values adopted can lead to substantial differences in predicted temperature behavior. In this study, we developed a 1-dimensional TP model for an array of three prismatic lithium-ion battery cells, in consideration of the uncertainty of key thermal parameters including specific heat, thermal conductivity, activation energy, and the latent heat of the thermal decomposition reaction. The validity of the model and the identification of calibration parameters are ensured through comparison with experimentally measured temperatures. We evaluated the influence of these parameter variations on the temperature and thermal runaway behavior of each cell. Our findings indicate that the variation in thermal runaway timing increases with distance from the trigger cell, and the probability of thermal runaway in the end cell was significantly higher than in the center cell. A sensitivity analysis using a surrogate model revealed that cell temperature is more sensitive to variations in thermal conductivity and latent heat than to variations in specific heat and activation energy.
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