The Effect of Lead-Time Weather Forecast Uncertainty on Outage Prediction Modeling

Weather-related power outages affect millions of utility customers every year. Predicting storm outages with lead times of up to five days could help utilities to allocate crews and resources and devise cost-effective restoration plans that meet the strict time and efficiency requirements imposed by...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Forecasting
Main Authors:	Feifei Yang, Diego Cerrai, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	MDPI AG 2021-07-01
Subjects:	forecast uncertainty lead time severe weather machine learning power outages
Online Access:	https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/3/3/31

Similar Items

Forecasting weather‐related power outages using weighted logistic regression
by: Vinayak Sharma, et al.
Published: (2023-10-01)

Bayesian Optimization and Hierarchical Forecasting of Non-Weather-Related Electric Power Outages
by: Olukunle O. Owolabi, et al.
Published: (2022-03-01)

Influence of the Characteristics of Weather Information in a Thunderstorm-Related Power Outage Prediction System
by: Peter L. Watson, et al.
Published: (2021-08-01)

Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms
by: Berk A. Alpay, et al.
Published: (2020-05-01)

Optimal real-time power dispatch of power grid with wind energy forecasting under extreme weather
by: Yixin Zhuo, et al.
Published: (2023-06-01)

Community power outage prediction modeling for the Eastern United States
by: William O. Taylor, et al.
Published: (2023-11-01)

Anomalous Behavior in Weather Forecast Uncertainty: Implications for Ship Weather Routing
by: Marijana Marjanović, et al.
Published: (2025-06-01)

Predicting weather-related power outages in large scale distribution grids with deep learning ensembles
by: L. Prieto-Godino, et al.
Published: (2025-09-01)

Characteristics of power outages from compound weather extremes in Florida
by: Mohammad Siddiqur Rahman, et al.
Published: (2025-01-01)

The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece
by: Evangelos Spiliotis, et al.
Published: (2020-04-01)

Probabilistic Storm and Electric Utility Customer Outage Prediction
by: Kingsley Udeh, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Social Media Sensors for Weather-Caused Outage Prediction Based on Spatio–Temporal Multiplex Network Representation
by: Rafaa Aljurbua, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)

Quantifying the Power System Resilience of the US Power Grid Through Weather and Power Outage Data Mapping
by: Sangkeun Matthew Lee, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Non-Parametric Machine Learning Modeling of Tree-Caused Power Outage Risk to Overhead Distribution Powerlines
by: Harshana Wedagedara, et al.
Published: (2024-06-01)

A Comprehensive Approach to Account for Weather Uncertainties in Ship Route Optimization
by: Roberto Vettor, et al.
Published: (2021-12-01)

Analysis of 2·15 Power Outage in Texas and Its Implications for the Power Sector of China
by: Yue ZHANG, et al.
Published: (2021-04-01)

Short-Term Forecasting of Unplanned Power Outages Using Machine Learning Algorithms: A Robust Feature Engineering Strategy Against Multicollinearity and Nonlinearity
by: Khathutshelo Steven Sivhugwana, et al.
Published: (2025-09-01)

Financial Hazard Prediction Due to Power Outages Associated with Severe Weather-Related Natural Disaster Categories
by: Rafal Ali, et al.
Published: (2022-12-01)

The Value of CME Arrival Time Forecasts for Space Weather Mitigation
by: M. J. Owens, et al.
Published: (2020-09-01)

Performance Evaluation of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Forecasting Rainfall Events in Kerala, India
by: V. Nitha, et al.
Published: (2025-03-01)

Solving Power Outages in Healthcare Facilities: Algorithmisation and Assessment of Preparedness
by: Katerina Vichova, et al.
Published: (2022-12-01)

State of Risk Prediction for Management and Mitigation of Vegetation and Weather Caused Outages in Distribution Networks
by: Rashid Baembitov, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)

Untangling the relationship between power outage and population activity recovery in disasters
by: Chia-Wei Hsu, et al.
Published: (2024-09-01)

Ensemble weather-runoff forecasting models for reliable flood early warning systems
by: Alberto de la Fuente, et al.
Published: (2025-04-01)

Integrating Structural Vulnerability Analysis and Data-Driven Machine Learning to Evaluate Storm Impacts on the Power Grid
by: Peter L. Watson, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Using weather data in energy time series forecasting: the benefit of input data transformations
by: Oliver Neumann, et al.
Published: (2023-11-01)

Unveiling Weather-Induced Blackouts: A Ten-Year Analysis With Deep Learning-Driven Power Resilience Enhancement
by: Mussadiq Abdul Rahim
Published: (2024-01-01)

A Dual-Stage Solar Power Prediction Model That Reflects Uncertainties in Weather Forecasts
by: Jeongin Lee, et al.
Published: (2023-10-01)

Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning‐Based Ionosphere and Space Weather Forecasting: Ensemble, Bayesian Neural Network, and Quantile Gradient Boosting
by: Randa Natras, et al.
Published: (2023-10-01)

Minimum-risk path planning based on hazardous weather uncertainty
by: Yantao WANG, et al.
Published: (2024-05-01)

Improving a WRF-Based High-Impact Weather Forecast System for a Northern California Power Utility
by: Richard L. Carpenter, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)

Financial Hazard Assessment for Electricity Suppliers Due to Power Outages: The Revenue Loss Perspective
by: Ikramullah Khosa, et al.
Published: (2022-06-01)

A Method Based on Deep Learning for Severe Convective Weather Forecast: CNN-BiLSTM-AM (Version 1.0)
by: Jianbin Zhang, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)

Power Outage: A Simulation Case for Anesthesiology Residents
by: Luke Johnson, et al.
Published: (2025-05-01)

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting
by: Jun Liu, et al.
Published: (2024-09-01)

A Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Restoration Time from Power Outages
by: Tasnuba Binte Jamal, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)

Towards Skillful Tropical Cyclone Forecasting by AI‐Model‐Driven High‐Resolution Regional Coupled Model
by: Sin Ki Lai, et al.
Published: (2025-09-01)

Resiliency evaluation of a collective residence with an independent power outage system
by: Jungmin Kim, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)

AI-Driven Outage Management with Exploratory Data Analysis, Predictive Modeling, and LLM-Based Interface Integration
by: Kian Ansarinejad, et al.
Published: (2025-10-01)

A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction
by: Yiqi Chu, et al.
Published: (2016-10-01)