Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: M. Seabrook, D. M. Smith, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, A. A. Scaife, S. C. Hardiman
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2023-01-01
• Subjects: Pacific decadal variability; stratospheric polar vortex; stratospheric water vapor
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101226

Abstract It is well established that the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to weaken the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), promoting a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperatures similar to ENSO, but its impacts are more uncertain: some studies suggest similar impacts of ENSO and PDV on the SPV and NAO, while others find the opposite. We use climate model experiments and reanalysis to find further evidence supporting opposite interannual and decadal impacts of Pacific variability on the extratropics. We propose that the decadal strengthening of the SPV in response to positive PDV is caused by a build‐up of stratospheric water vapor leading to enhanced cooling at the poles, an increased meridional temperature gradient and a strengthened extratropical jet. Our results are important for understanding decadal variability, seasonal to decadal forecasts and climate projections.