Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations
Abstract Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST...
| Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, C. F. Schleussner, A. D. King, R. Knutti |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-08-01
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079176 |
Similar Items
Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate
by: Armineh Barkhordarian
Published: (2024-01-01)
by: Armineh Barkhordarian
Published: (2024-01-01)
Developing Low‐Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe
by: C. Gessner, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
by: C. Gessner, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
by: Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
by: Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
by: S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2022-01-01)
by: S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2022-01-01)
Analysis of Climate Change and Extreme Climatic Events in the Lake Victoria Region of Tanzania
by: Philbert Modest Luhunga, et al.
Published: (2020-12-01)
by: Philbert Modest Luhunga, et al.
Published: (2020-12-01)
Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record
by: David R. Easterling, et al.
Published: (2016-03-01)
by: David R. Easterling, et al.
Published: (2016-03-01)
Editorial: Extreme climate events: Variability, mechanisms, and numerical simulations
by: Bo Sun, et al.
Published: (2023-03-01)
by: Bo Sun, et al.
Published: (2023-03-01)
Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework
by: Jamin K Rader, et al.
Published: (2025-01-01)
by: Jamin K Rader, et al.
Published: (2025-01-01)
Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050
by: Fulden Batibeniz, et al.
Published: (2020-04-01)
by: Fulden Batibeniz, et al.
Published: (2020-04-01)
Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981–2010 explained by climate change
by: Toshichika Iizumi, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
by: Toshichika Iizumi, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022
by: Shruti Nath, et al.
Published: (2024-06-01)
by: Shruti Nath, et al.
Published: (2024-06-01)
Multi-year drought storylines for Europe and North America from an iteratively perturbed global climate model
by: Claudia Gessner, et al.
Published: (2022-12-01)
by: Claudia Gessner, et al.
Published: (2022-12-01)
Timing and spatial selection bias in rapid extreme event attribution
by: Ophélia Miralles, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
by: Ophélia Miralles, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs
by: Yating Zhang, et al.
Published: (2024-03-01)
by: Yating Zhang, et al.
Published: (2024-03-01)
Internal Climate Variability and Extreme Temperatures over the Mediterranean
by: Christos Kourtesiotis, et al.
Published: (2023-08-01)
by: Christos Kourtesiotis, et al.
Published: (2023-08-01)
Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change
by: Daniel Mitchell, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
by: Daniel Mitchell, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
Assessment of extreme climate indices in the Somalia National Regional State, eastern Ethiopia
by: Mohammedreha Abajihad Abafogi, et al.
Published: (2024-12-01)
by: Mohammedreha Abajihad Abafogi, et al.
Published: (2024-12-01)
Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies
by: Sophie C. Lewis, et al.
Published: (2019-09-01)
by: Sophie C. Lewis, et al.
Published: (2019-09-01)
Adapting attribution science to the climate extremes of tomorrow
by: Luke J Harrington, et al.
Published: (2018-01-01)
by: Luke J Harrington, et al.
Published: (2018-01-01)
The key role of extreme weather and climate change in the occurrence of exceptional fire seasons in south-central Chile
by: Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, et al.
Published: (2024-09-01)
by: Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, et al.
Published: (2024-09-01)
Spatio-temporal trends in extreme climatic variables: a focus in southern Ethiopia
by: Demissie Dalacho Debisa, et al.
Published: (2025-06-01)
by: Demissie Dalacho Debisa, et al.
Published: (2025-06-01)
Extreme events impact attribution: A state of the art
by: Ilan Noy, et al.
Published: (2024-05-01)
by: Ilan Noy, et al.
Published: (2024-05-01)
Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events
by: R Vautard, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
by: R Vautard, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023–2024 Warming
by: G. Gyuleva, et al.
Published: (2025-07-01)
by: G. Gyuleva, et al.
Published: (2025-07-01)
Changes in climate extremes in Vietnam
by: Van Thang Nguyen, et al.
Published: (2017-03-01)
by: Van Thang Nguyen, et al.
Published: (2017-03-01)
Trends and variability of extreme climate indices in the Boucle du Mouhoun (Burkina Faso)
by: Songanaba ROUAMBA, et al.
Published: (2023-07-01)
by: Songanaba ROUAMBA, et al.
Published: (2023-07-01)
Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States
by: J. S. Nanditha, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
by: J. S. Nanditha, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
Attribution of the Record‐Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change
by: Liangyi Wang, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
by: Liangyi Wang, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01)
An improved empirical quantile mapping approach for bias correction of extreme values in climate model simulations
by: Kyuhyun Byun, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
by: Kyuhyun Byun, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution
by: Aglaé Jézéquel, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
by: Aglaé Jézéquel, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: The 2023 Texas/Louisiana heat wave as a prototype
by: Carl J Schreck III, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
by: Carl J Schreck III, et al.
Published: (2024-01-01)
Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017
by: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al.
Published: (2017-01-01)
by: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al.
Published: (2017-01-01)
Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs
by: K Haustein, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
by: K Haustein, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
Operational attribution of weather and climate extremes: what next?
by: Peter A Stott, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)
by: Peter A Stott, et al.
Published: (2023-01-01)
How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?
by: Julien Cattiaux, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
by: Julien Cattiaux, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01)
Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited
by: Friederike E L Otto, et al.
Published: (2018-01-01)
by: Friederike E L Otto, et al.
Published: (2018-01-01)
On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming
by: Noah S Diffenbaugh, et al.
Published: (2021-01-01)
by: Noah S Diffenbaugh, et al.
Published: (2021-01-01)
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
by: Andrew D King, et al.
Published: (2015-01-01)
by: Andrew D King, et al.
Published: (2015-01-01)
Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipitation in Boulder, Colorado
by: Jonathan M Eden, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
by: Jonathan M Eden, et al.
Published: (2016-01-01)
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe
by: G Guimarães Nobre, et al.
Published: (2017-01-01)
by: G Guimarães Nobre, et al.
Published: (2017-01-01)
Similar Items
-
Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate
by: Armineh Barkhordarian
Published: (2024-01-01) -
Developing Low‐Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe
by: C. Gessner, et al.
Published: (2023-09-01) -
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
by: Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2024-10-01) -
On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
by: S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, et al.
Published: (2022-01-01) -
Analysis of Climate Change and Extreme Climatic Events in the Lake Victoria Region of Tanzania
by: Philbert Modest Luhunga, et al.
Published: (2020-12-01)
