A Framework for Conducting and Communicating Probabilistic Wildland Fire Forecasts

Fire models predict fire behavior and effects. However, there is a need to know how confident users can be in forecasts. This work developed a probabilistic methodology based on ensemble simulations that incorporated uncertainty in weather, fuel loading, and model physics parameters. It provided inf...

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Bibliographic Details

Published in:	Fire
Main Authors:	Janice L. Coen, Gary W. Johnson, J. Shane Romsos, David Saah
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	MDPI AG 2024-07-01
Subjects:	wildfire modeling ensemble uncertainty fire behavior forecasting prediction
Online Access:	https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/7/227