Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey
Abstract Background Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M obse...
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doaj-025f415eace840d6b1f956861f416c7d2020-11-25T03:54:57ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582020-09-0120111210.1186/s12889-020-09534-3Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health surveyJustice Moses K. Aheto0Robert Yankson1Michael Give Chipeta2Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of GhanaAfrican Institute for Mathematical SciencesMalawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research ProgrammeAbstract Background Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted. Methods The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival. Results Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608–12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128–1.0527]). Child’s age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870–0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614–0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298–0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M. Conclusion The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-020-09534-3Child deathsUnder-five mortalityGeostatistical analysisMapping under-five mortalityRisk factorsGhana |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Justice Moses K. Aheto Robert Yankson Michael Give Chipeta |
spellingShingle |
Justice Moses K. Aheto Robert Yankson Michael Give Chipeta Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey BMC Public Health Child deaths Under-five mortality Geostatistical analysis Mapping under-five mortality Risk factors Ghana |
author_facet |
Justice Moses K. Aheto Robert Yankson Michael Give Chipeta |
author_sort |
Justice Moses K. Aheto |
title |
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey |
title_short |
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey |
title_full |
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey |
title_fullStr |
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey |
title_sort |
geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 ghana demographic and health survey |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Public Health |
issn |
1471-2458 |
publishDate |
2020-09-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted. Methods The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival. Results Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608–12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128–1.0527]). Child’s age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870–0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614–0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298–0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M. Conclusion The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact. |
topic |
Child deaths Under-five mortality Geostatistical analysis Mapping under-five mortality Risk factors Ghana |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-020-09534-3 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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